{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d31c45aa-40e4-4e7d-a8c5-691f101cfd1d", "symbol": "LRT", "name": "Lowell Resources Fund", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.306, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.558, "architecture_energy": 47.425, "architecture_maturity": 10.303, "architecture_confidence": 78.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.91, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 10.84, "deceleration": 39.76, "rotation_down": 62.14, "downward_expansion": 84.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.138667, 2.17706, 2.25081, 2.305337 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.33, "trend_reference": 2.399073, "distance_from_trend": -0.028791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.530239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.522638, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.02113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075397, "excess_performance": -0.139102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.522638, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.36311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186043, "relative_activity": 1.557899, "balance": 1.36311, "dry_up": 1.037293, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093375, "annualized_volatility": 0.548665, "from_high_reference": -0.248387, "from_low_reference": 0.618056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.399073, "fair_value_reference": 1.530239, "structural_low": 1.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015385, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.002324, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.070175, "worst_return": -0.100155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071189, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.06608, "worst_return": -0.127842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00516, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.229357, "worst_return": -0.148608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.289816, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.285744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.742084, "worst_return": -0.162452, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046808, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.57556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070847, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120192, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.134081, "volume": 29137, "typical_volume": 41073.0, "trend": 1.027678, "fair_value": 1.081726, "relative_strength": 11.923938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.206398, "energy": 37.853197, "activity_lines": [ 2.307218, 2.333257, 2.353528, 2.398393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.18, "volume": 72625, "typical_volume": 149655.25, "trend": 2.416406, "fair_value": 1.505755, "relative_strength": 0.68252, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.394467, "energy": 43.274921, "activity_lines": [ 2.258732, 2.3014, 2.332089, 2.38327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.08, "volume": 70185, "typical_volume": 136585.6, "trend": 2.414739, "fair_value": 1.511763, "relative_strength": -4.436661, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.317322, "energy": 61.932403, "activity_lines": [ 2.187994, 2.252633, 2.303888, 2.361566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 64638, "typical_volume": 128078.25, "trend": 2.407073, "fair_value": 1.517054, "relative_strength": -8.780381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.289588, "energy": 74.370783, "activity_lines": [ 2.102492, 2.19423, 2.271449, 2.334164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 174625, "typical_volume": 129965.3, "trend": 2.399739, "fair_value": 1.522825, "relative_strength": -9.510015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.92266, "energy": 72.481535, "activity_lines": [ 2.060667, 2.155463, 2.245963, 2.309836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.33, "volume": 186043, "typical_volume": 119419.2, "trend": 2.399073, "fair_value": 1.530239, "relative_strength": -0.02113, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.557615, "energy": 47.425427, "activity_lines": [ 2.138667, 2.17706, 2.25081, 2.305337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }