{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d31fd2ed-44b8-49ef-b6a0-2caf093465d0", "symbol": "603727", "name": "BOMESC Offshore Engineering Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.261, "architecture_energy": 12.892, "architecture_maturity": 25.141, "architecture_confidence": 89.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.82, "rotation_up": 46.12, "upward_expansion": 31.5, "deceleration": 43.33, "rotation_down": 19.76, "downward_expansion": 20.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.226666, 16.733454, 16.712967, 17.0533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.26, "trend_reference": 17.12901, "distance_from_trend": 0.066028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.54634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.556777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120772, "excess_performance": 0.163976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165568, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.722493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17745380, "relative_activity": 0.572508, "balance": 1.722493, "dry_up": 0.984232, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114753, "annualized_volatility": 0.550652, "from_high_reference": -0.154939, "from_low_reference": 0.440743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.12901, "fair_value_reference": 13.54634, "structural_low": 13.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.08398, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.063189, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.180905, "worst_return": -0.191133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024955, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.004561, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.272484, "worst_return": -0.352709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084035, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.125109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319349, "worst_return": -0.472646, "sufficient": true }, { 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16.162666, 16.062409, 17.031126, 17.058654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.309999, "volume": 22906645, "typical_volume": 41793106.3, "trend": 16.72175, "fair_value": 13.405116, "relative_strength": 3.510161, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.861843, "energy": 11.004465, "activity_lines": [ 16.387999, 16.043091, 16.909121, 17.034636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.09, "volume": 26015200, "typical_volume": 40999442.05, "trend": 16.754171, "fair_value": 13.429005, "relative_strength": 1.717205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.089959, "energy": 13.359315, "activity_lines": [ 16.082666, 15.845272, 16.669946, 16.929362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.35, "volume": 43939172, "typical_volume": 35704203.25, "trend": 16.84375, "fair_value": 13.460293, "relative_strength": 8.603616, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.902414, "energy": 7.943527, "activity_lines": [ 16.125333, 15.928545, 16.563958, 16.903287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.889999, "volume": 34328757, "typical_volume": 32957040.6, "trend": 16.981037, "fair_value": 13.499974, "relative_strength": 17.85902, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.873808, "energy": 10.376847, "activity_lines": [ 16.647333, 16.301454, 16.621648, 16.970787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.26, "volume": 17745380, "typical_volume": 30995866.75, "trend": 17.12901, "fair_value": 13.54634, "relative_strength": 16.556777, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.260786, "energy": 12.891955, "activity_lines": [ 17.226666, 16.733454, 16.712967, 17.0533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }