{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d322728b-b078-48a4-b069-94bee26d9431", "symbol": "HBF-B", "name": "Harvest US Equity Leaders Income ETF Class B Unhedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.543, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.154, "architecture_energy": 66.732, "architecture_maturity": 72.95, "architecture_confidence": 65.319, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.86, "rotation_up": 54.83, "upward_expansion": 81.99, "deceleration": 70.95, "rotation_down": 28.37, "downward_expansion": 10.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.329367, 13.272551, 13.147354, 12.897423 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.69, "trend_reference": 12.608874, "distance_from_trend": 0.085743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.604205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.277147, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123553, "excess_performance": 0.003132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027665, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030267, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581836, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1134, "relative_activity": 1.280922, "balance": 1.581836, "dry_up": 0.801141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015657, "annualized_volatility": 0.120667, "from_high_reference": -0.00581, "from_low_reference": 0.239697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.608874, "fair_value_reference": 10.604205, "structural_low": 11.620461, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009078, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.001551, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.047297, "worst_return": -0.041649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018757, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.000887, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.102132, "worst_return": -0.058615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034116, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.011805, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.147331, "worst_return": -0.042928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.966677, 12.557845, 12.42782 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 13.184488, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1766.05, "trend": 12.34171, "fair_value": 10.357337, "relative_strength": -1.920993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.549104, "energy": 88.13667, "activity_lines": [ 13.215345, 13.050059, 12.639109, 12.484354 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 13.393292, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1426.3, "trend": 12.384415, "fair_value": 10.390534, "relative_strength": -0.407769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.336226, "energy": 88.588978, "activity_lines": [ 13.280947, 13.148086, 12.735189, 12.552198 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.019627, "volume": 301, "typical_volume": 1350.85, "trend": 12.4049, "fair_value": 10.420498, "relative_strength": -3.078968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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-1.646856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.421943, "energy": 60.902728, "activity_lines": [ 13.235432, 13.227744, 12.98861, 12.750511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.163791, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 937.7, "trend": 12.536552, "fair_value": 10.542647, "relative_strength": -2.614028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.858207, "energy": 57.740286, "activity_lines": [ 13.213172, 13.218701, 13.0353, 12.793025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.03, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 937.85, "trend": 12.565271, "fair_value": 10.571522, "relative_strength": -3.059094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.227709, "energy": 51.666983, "activity_lines": [ 13.161615, 13.184717, 13.06274, 12.82486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.69, "volume": 1134, "typical_volume": 885.3, "trend": 12.608874, "fair_value": 10.604205, "relative_strength": -1.277147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.153752, "energy": 66.732476, "activity_lines": [ 13.329367, 13.272551, 13.147354, 12.897423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }