{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3273ca1-1ee7-43df-b539-935a471ed6d6", "symbol": "XLF3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Financials ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.613, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.205, "architecture_energy": 90.88, "architecture_maturity": 21.062, "architecture_confidence": 79.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.82, "rotation_up": 85.53, "upward_expansion": 99.34, "deceleration": 39.31, "rotation_down": 8.95, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.03, 5.787909, 5.382405, 5.160957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.225, "trend_reference": 5.027167, "distance_from_trend": 0.238272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.639666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.059547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10177, "excess_performance": 0.050535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070595, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 39.105991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10226, "relative_activity": 3.584109, "balance": 39.105991, "dry_up": 2.220879, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055483, "annualized_volatility": 0.418038, "from_high_reference": -0.042308, "from_low_reference": 0.58801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.027167, "fair_value_reference": 4.639666, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.018555, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.003738, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.245772, "worst_return": -0.218137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008696, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.058521, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.309337, "worst_return": -0.297071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.642826, "worst_return": -0.234783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -3.768417, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.982511, "energy": 69.141696, "activity_lines": [ 5.267333, 5.053455, 4.836286, 4.865366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.675, "volume": 5296, "typical_volume": 1749.45, "trend": 5.042167, "fair_value": 4.552261, "relative_strength": 0.448729, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.626888, "energy": 77.74931, "activity_lines": [ 5.438333, 5.190182, 4.929476, 4.905548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.0, "volume": 14533, "typical_volume": 2435.65, "trend": 5.041333, "fair_value": 4.573591, "relative_strength": 5.466063, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.962639, "energy": 86.515466, "activity_lines": [ 5.66, 5.372091, 5.050405, 4.967344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.85, "volume": 104, "typical_volume": 2389.45, "trend": 5.028, "fair_value": 4.594111, "relative_strength": 1.931419, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.834191, "energy": 81.053099, "activity_lines": [ 5.771667, 5.501091, 5.151238, 5.019516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.025, "volume": 483, "typical_volume": 2371.6, "trend": 5.029667, "fair_value": 4.616222, "relative_strength": 3.839451, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.148208, "energy": 90.183075, "activity_lines": [ 5.895, 5.637909, 5.261833, 5.083839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.225, "volume": 10226, "typical_volume": 2853.15, "trend": 5.027167, "fair_value": 4.639666, "relative_strength": 7.059547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.205095, "energy": 90.879531, "activity_lines": [ 6.03, 5.787909, 5.382405, 5.160957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }