{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d32aba5f-28f0-4259-a8c0-966ec848033c", "symbol": "PBH", "name": "Prestige Brand Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.776, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.094, "architecture_energy": 11.256, "architecture_maturity": 88.43, "architecture_confidence": 62.491, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.65, "rotation_up": 32.1, "upward_expansion": 26.52, "deceleration": 49.97, "rotation_down": 15.19, "downward_expansion": 46.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.523333, 50.346727, 50.253524, 52.562344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 54.85, "trend_reference": 56.22, "distance_from_trend": -0.024369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 67.566474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188207, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.49168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173074, "excess_performance": -0.298699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064767, "read": "Falling" 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42.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.025975, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.025142, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.175279, "worst_return": -0.185612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069406, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0355, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.232512, "worst_return": -0.157448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021384, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.033614, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.273568, "worst_return": -0.068352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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43.399381, "activity_lines": [ 48.564667, 48.409818, 51.513286, 54.697376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.9, "volume": 2318841, "typical_volume": 3053375.2, "trend": 57.730333, "fair_value": 67.915962, "relative_strength": -27.814594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.668624, "energy": 39.591686, "activity_lines": [ 48.811333, 48.378727, 50.910714, 54.10071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.92, "volume": 2105009, "typical_volume": 3028115.6, "trend": 57.336333, "fair_value": 67.837244, "relative_strength": -24.26164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.567514, "energy": 30.851618, "activity_lines": [ 49.283333, 48.645636, 50.503762, 53.596817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.66, "volume": 2732856, "typical_volume": 3058987.4, "trend": 56.897333, "fair_value": 67.73891, "relative_strength": -23.300012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.693854, "energy": 27.676159, "activity_lines": [ 49.528667, 48.912909, 50.164333, 53.10157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.22, "volume": 2046960, "typical_volume": 3072892.05, "trend": 56.530667, "fair_value": 67.629295, "relative_strength": -22.379029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.236069, "energy": 23.857442, "activity_lines": [ 49.781333, 49.229091, 49.961714, 52.670774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.85, "volume": 3950176, "typical_volume": 3118210.8, "trend": 56.22, "fair_value": 67.566474, "relative_strength": -17.49168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.094499, "energy": 11.25618, "activity_lines": [ 51.523333, 50.346727, 50.253524, 52.562344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }