{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d334b453-7528-4610-80b6-cc1fd033ecee",
    "symbol": "BJAN",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 56.657,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.721,
    "architecture_energy": 73.631,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.204,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.281,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.43,
        "rotation_up": 65.12,
        "upward_expansion": 89.55,
        "deceleration": 49.79,
        "rotation_down": 24.47,
        "downward_expansion": 13.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        59.449007,
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        57.76734
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 60.2634,
    "trend_reference": 56.828057,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.060452,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 48.172196,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.920748,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.084329,
    "excess_performance": -0.041296,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060452,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027499,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.251,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000476,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029207,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001129,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084329,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.452166,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 34466,
      "relative_activity": 0.28938,
      "balance": 0.452166,
      "dry_up": 2.346363,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.013567,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.096924,
      "from_high_reference": -2.7e-05,
      "from_low_reference": 0.177479
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 56.828057,
      "fair_value_reference": 48.172196,
      "structural_low": 52.1401,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 45,
        "median_return": 0.009645,
        "positive_rate": 0.755556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.755556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001999,
        "regime_survival": 0.844444,
        "best_return": 0.046222,
        "worst_return": -0.052335,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005225,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.09625,
        "worst_return": -0.026858,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
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        "worst_return": -0.107705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.087833,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 125551.45,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 40609,
        "typical_volume": 124153.1,
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        "fair_value": 47.891726,
        "relative_strength": -1.150576,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 65.19461,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 59.295,
        "volume": 22015,
        "typical_volume": 121330.35,
        "trend": 56.675943,
        "fair_value": 48.028712,
        "relative_strength": -1.211976,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.205683,
        "energy": 67.217845,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 60.2634,
        "volume": 34466,
        "typical_volume": 119103.05,
        "trend": 56.828057,
        "fair_value": 48.172196,
        "relative_strength": -2.920748,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.720691,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}