{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d33bf4de-9b61-43aa-ab05-eed08fffc148", "symbol": "GLO", "name": "GL Events SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.07, "architecture_energy": 54.443, "architecture_maturity": 12.548, "architecture_confidence": 66.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.83, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 67.64, "downward_expansion": 61.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.173333, 31.81776, 32.394352, 32.479454 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.6, "trend_reference": 32.444607, "distance_from_trend": -0.056854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.05486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.696206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069909, "excess_performance": -0.12322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51807, "relative_activity": 0.842871, "balance": 0.808732, "dry_up": 0.887839, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054075, "annualized_volatility": 0.303792, "from_high_reference": -0.155862, "from_low_reference": 0.174664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.444607, "fair_value_reference": 23.05486, "structural_low": 28.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.012586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000609, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.334563, "worst_return": -0.127094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002653, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.051299, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.359163, "worst_return": -0.12549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.186576, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.116243, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.441388, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040573, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.369047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", 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71577.65, "trend": 32.201274, "fair_value": 22.612352, "relative_strength": 5.78163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.841869, "energy": 21.940132, "activity_lines": [ 33.208455, 33.164053, 33.037405, 32.791801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.0, "volume": 45385, "typical_volume": 71631.3, "trend": 32.276274, "fair_value": 22.69818, "relative_strength": -0.613142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.91711, "energy": 6.670855, "activity_lines": [ 32.946468, 32.958813, 32.951509, 32.778815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.5, "volume": 41745, "typical_volume": 71028.7, "trend": 32.334607, "fair_value": 22.781696, "relative_strength": -2.260657, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.308377, "energy": 2.386716, "activity_lines": [ 32.518907, 32.670899, 32.828232, 32.728733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.4, "volume": 59593, "typical_volume": 69026.5, "trend": 32.404607, "fair_value": 22.871711, "relative_strength": -2.993303, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.130401, "energy": 21.470789, "activity_lines": [ 32.111843, 32.395361, 32.707574, 32.668436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.35, "volume": 65139, "typical_volume": 65581.25, "trend": 32.474607, "fair_value": 22.965332, "relative_strength": -4.553871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.808236, "energy": 40.309985, "activity_lines": [ 31.703333, 32.151044, 32.586439, 32.600397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.6, "volume": 51807, "typical_volume": 61464.95, "trend": 32.444607, "fair_value": 23.05486, "relative_strength": -8.696206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.069783, "energy": 54.442921, "activity_lines": [ 31.173333, 31.81776, 32.394352, 32.479454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }