{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3421ad3-15e0-4057-a8c5-24b840994411", "symbol": "APTV34", "name": "Aptiv PLC", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.48, "architecture_energy": 19.833, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.2, "rotation_up": 16.52, "upward_expansion": 52.57, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 28.83, "downward_expansion": 32.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.081333, 148.601819, 149.711755, 130.479241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 123.839996, "trend_reference": 98.8967, "distance_from_trend": 0.252216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.651876, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.646577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 106.315988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 11.933301, "excess_performance": 11.99035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.252216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.957119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.646577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -5.290548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.06316, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.448651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 11.933301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109, "relative_activity": 1.686002, "balance": 0.817021, "dry_up": 0.738592, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088483, "annualized_volatility": 3.994655, "from_high_reference": -0.342954, "from_low_reference": 17.376357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.8967, "fair_value_reference": 26.651876, "structural_low": 6.739094, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009993, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.052741, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.13305, "worst_return": -0.150471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02577, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.160763, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.150207, "worst_return": -0.38071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023102, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.068356, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 14.861375, "worst_return": -0.525699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.110217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 61.95, "trend": 90.386958, "fair_value": 25.036999, "relative_strength": 169.395553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.124007, "energy": 69.824644, "activity_lines": [ 150.996003, 155.020729, 148.971627, 124.62718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 152.389999, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 62.05, "trend": 95.136094, "fair_value": 25.932841, "relative_strength": 155.243697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.665049, "energy": 51.512864, "activity_lines": [ 151.091335, 154.566547, 151.041158, 128.627376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.839996, "volume": 109, "typical_volume": 64.65, "trend": 98.8967, "fair_value": 26.651876, "relative_strength": 106.315988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.479695, "energy": 19.83337, "activity_lines": [ 142.081333, 148.601819, 149.711755, 130.479241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }