{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d34655bd-1887-4d3c-9a22-15a79ced6e7e", "symbol": "5AE", "name": "Pollux Properties Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.367, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.123, "architecture_energy": 44.453, "architecture_maturity": 19.355, "architecture_confidence": 87.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.04, "rotation_up": 22.26, "upward_expansion": 6.97, "deceleration": 52.69, "rotation_down": 47.06, "downward_expansion": 75.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.026867, 0.027182, 0.0292, 0.030206 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.027, "trend_reference": 0.030567, "distance_from_trend": -0.116685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.027128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.983949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038462, "excess_performance": -0.116374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116685, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01663, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.858863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2078000, "relative_activity": 0.172985, "balance": 2.858863, "dry_up": 0.062528, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096866, "annualized_volatility": 0.879919, "from_high_reference": -0.425532, "from_low_reference": 0.35 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030567, "fair_value_reference": 0.027128, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.020238, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.171429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.060829, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.095793, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115758, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.216301, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.68, "active": false 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-53.667353, "energy": 71.422351, "activity_lines": [ 0.027067, 0.029, 0.031019, 0.031125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 19599815.0, "trend": 0.030567, "fair_value": 0.02741, "relative_strength": -17.832804, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.564247, "energy": 68.030774, "activity_lines": [ 0.0268, 0.028382, 0.03049, 0.030899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 565600, "typical_volume": 17094645.0, "trend": 0.0306, "fair_value": 0.027314, "relative_strength": -18.659887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.874669, "energy": 65.933273, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.027855, 0.030033, 0.030669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.027, "volume": 360800, "typical_volume": 13869790.0, "trend": 0.030567, "fair_value": 0.027218, "relative_strength": -19.046299, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.823789, "energy": 70.879317, "activity_lines": [ 0.026733, 0.027455, 0.0296, 0.030437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.027, "volume": 2078000, "typical_volume": 12012630.0, "trend": 0.030567, "fair_value": 0.027128, "relative_strength": -19.983949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.123318, "energy": 44.453189, "activity_lines": [ 0.026867, 0.027182, 0.0292, 0.030206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }