{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d349d3bd-4c11-4d82-bbf3-0d143ec582c6", "symbol": "THAI", "name": "Thai Airways International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.26, "architecture_energy": 65.18, "architecture_maturity": 8.578, "architecture_confidence": 76.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.27, "rotation_up": 8.94, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 37.92, "rotation_down": 73.87, "downward_expansion": 89.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.81, 6.009091, 6.145354, 6.171284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.75, "trend_reference": 6.265171, "distance_from_trend": -0.082228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.872979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.284645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097987, "excess_performance": -0.290312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090863, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.697461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2029532100, "relative_activity": 7.894316, "balance": 2.697461, "dry_up": 2.441088, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070234, "annualized_volatility": 0.298328, "from_high_reference": -0.69313, "from_low_reference": 0.133959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.265171, "fair_value_reference": 4.872979, "structural_low": 5.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008264, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.048442, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 3.96988, "worst_return": -0.10219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.154811, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.042169, "worst_return": -0.166158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.428283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.396154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.078314, "worst_return": -0.221748, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 5.95, "volume": 172074400, "typical_volume": 163263530.0, "trend": 6.340789, "fair_value": 4.841334, "relative_strength": -39.657234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.653814, "energy": 37.299811, "activity_lines": [ 6.066667, 6.252727, 6.240423, 6.254799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 155156900, "typical_volume": 163757600.0, "trend": 6.303699, "fair_value": 4.856676, "relative_strength": -42.714998, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.216402, "energy": 68.212657, "activity_lines": [ 5.896667, 6.112727, 6.184821, 6.207006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.75, "volume": 2029532100, "typical_volume": 257087770.0, "trend": 6.265171, "fair_value": 4.872979, "relative_strength": -39.284645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.259775, "energy": 65.179579, "activity_lines": [ 5.81, 6.009091, 6.145354, 6.171284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }