{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d34aa710-1d3a-43ce-8892-28c09dee7643", "symbol": "FSZ", "name": "Fiera Capital Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.265, "architecture_energy": 78.892, "architecture_maturity": 61.296, "architecture_confidence": 80.912, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 17.14, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 76.27, "downward_expansion": 90.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.893333, 5.035273, 5.191496, 5.257871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.75, "trend_reference": 5.374529, "distance_from_trend": -0.116202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.924091, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.757619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139238, "excess_performance": -0.259659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2242800, "relative_activity": 2.171057, "balance": 0.677659, "dry_up": 1.613119, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054625, "annualized_volatility": 0.277649, "from_high_reference": -0.283729, "from_low_reference": 0.034858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.374529, "fair_value_reference": 5.924091, "structural_low": 4.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.003695, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.00992, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.134812, "worst_return": -0.105373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00205, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.06424, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.187523, "worst_return": -0.128375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043296, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.517041, "worst_return": -0.211696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.684406, "energy": 67.949173, "activity_lines": [ 5.060667, 5.167455, 5.274417, 5.331247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 1115900, "typical_volume": 995040.0, "trend": 5.411037, "fair_value": 5.925246, "relative_strength": -20.54911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.115376, "energy": 67.058506, "activity_lines": [ 5.009333, 5.117818, 5.243245, 5.300518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.75, "volume": 2242800, "typical_volume": 1033045.0, "trend": 5.374529, "fair_value": 5.924091, "relative_strength": -25.757619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.265023, "energy": 78.891724, "activity_lines": [ 4.893333, 5.035273, 5.191496, 5.257871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }