{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3541750-bd19-47d0-bbb5-973bbd8267f7", "symbol": "MKSI", "name": "MKS Instruments Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.984, "architecture_energy": 20.91, "architecture_maturity": 64.324, "architecture_confidence": 92.679, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.98, "rotation_up": 16.59, "upward_expansion": 51.64, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 41.24, "downward_expansion": 22.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 314.683333, 335.619636, 330.070884, 311.256309 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 304.99, "trend_reference": 285.961051, "distance_from_trend": 0.066544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.800978, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.13577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.095987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.257484, "excess_performance": 0.07003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.13577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.22096, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.406647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.257484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10727468, "relative_activity": 1.702635, "balance": 0.973225, "dry_up": 1.23807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165278, "annualized_volatility": 0.559577, "from_high_reference": -0.318641, "from_low_reference": 2.151081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 285.961051, "fair_value_reference": 142.800978, "structural_low": 200.350552, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155682, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.06569, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.258984, "worst_return": -0.051097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.263023, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.147818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.742539, "worst_return": 0.033368, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062185, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.232799, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.472097, "worst_return": -0.16101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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63.103319, "energy": 58.80705, "activity_lines": [ 375.96, 359.050561, 325.594942, 301.073518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 324.69, "volume": 6089253, "typical_volume": 6073594.95, "trend": 272.164827, "fair_value": 138.726658, "relative_strength": 41.624846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.419817, "energy": 42.970538, "activity_lines": [ 358.536, 355.416381, 328.396152, 304.817951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 329.18, "volume": 4322531, "typical_volume": 5953153.25, "trend": 277.673956, "fair_value": 140.157656, "relative_strength": 43.356602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.909014, "energy": 26.62278, "activity_lines": [ 344.675333, 352.385593, 331.242066, 308.496349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 297.45, "volume": 10062644, "typical_volume": 6125839.55, "trend": 281.98666, "fair_value": 141.435718, "relative_strength": 26.902147, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.737263, "energy": 18.93936, "activity_lines": [ 325.384, 343.108696, 330.497807, 309.772223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 304.99, "volume": 10727468, "typical_volume": 6300510.95, "trend": 285.961051, "fair_value": 142.800978, "relative_strength": 22.095987, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.984273, "energy": 20.910183, "activity_lines": [ 314.683333, 335.619636, 330.070884, 311.256309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }