{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d354ea66-129e-469e-bf4c-f7ec4d59db61", "symbol": "1182", "name": "Amlak International Finance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.196, "architecture_energy": 54.751, "architecture_maturity": 81.416, "architecture_confidence": 89.881, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 20.49, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 58.83, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 84.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.7, 8.778182, 9.092849, 9.295313 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.96, "trend_reference": 9.613672, "distance_from_trend": -0.067994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.16619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.546115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146642, "excess_performance": -0.114813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3084175, "relative_activity": 1.708786, "balance": 0.850914, "dry_up": 1.197238, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042094, "annualized_volatility": 0.177451, "from_high_reference": -0.321611, "from_low_reference": 0.091352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.613672, "fair_value_reference": 11.16619, "structural_low": 8.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.018096, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.00585, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.186757, "worst_return": -0.100264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005463, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.031417, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.332039, "worst_return": -0.103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030952, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.07181, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192233, "worst_return": -0.177953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -18.899414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.351573, "energy": 90.126167, "activity_lines": [ 8.867333, 9.132201, 9.378124, 9.577504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.6, "volume": 1749806, "typical_volume": 1549219.1, "trend": 9.801578, "fair_value": 11.250167, "relative_strength": -17.300525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.201509, "energy": 88.64892, "activity_lines": [ 8.742, 8.997091, 9.291687, 9.495325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.56, "volume": 1431553, "typical_volume": 1592744.55, "trend": 9.728052, "fair_value": 11.220144, "relative_strength": -17.89253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.052248, "energy": 87.323492, "activity_lines": [ 8.644667, 8.878364, 9.207183, 9.415223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.57, "volume": 2378007, "typical_volume": 1665116.15, "trend": 9.660562, "fair_value": 11.191592, "relative_strength": -15.799489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.485091, "energy": 81.936848, "activity_lines": [ 8.596667, 8.782364, 9.128705, 9.34051 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.96, "volume": 3084175, "typical_volume": 1804892.25, "trend": 9.613672, "fair_value": 11.16619, "relative_strength": -13.546115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.195837, "energy": 54.751179, "activity_lines": [ 8.7, 8.778182, 9.092849, 9.295313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }