{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d355d063-0454-44fa-b81d-0ede7d1bfbb2", "symbol": "SIG", "name": "Signet Jewelers Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.943, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.979, "architecture_energy": 46.912, "architecture_maturity": 15.186, "architecture_confidence": 53.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.07, "rotation_up": 63.08, "upward_expansion": 55.83, "deceleration": 25.77, "rotation_down": 23.05, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.107859, 90.434414, 88.364603, 88.292162 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 96.91, "trend_reference": 88.922859, "distance_from_trend": 0.089821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.533696, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160131, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.321275, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003016, "excess_performance": -0.122609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089821, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09314, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064332, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003016, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2590845, "relative_activity": 0.652797, "balance": 0.88759, "dry_up": 0.859276, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082499, "annualized_volatility": 0.44693, "from_high_reference": -0.111248, "from_low_reference": 0.353208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.922859, "fair_value_reference": 83.533696, "structural_low": 71.615, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.047166, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035309, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.206773, "worst_return": -0.193382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.102132, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.016349, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.496643, "worst_return": -0.08005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1234, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.150152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.569043, "worst_return": -0.088897, "sufficient": true }, 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87.447685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.9, "volume": 4327452, "typical_volume": 4387457.8, "trend": 88.484185, "fair_value": 83.39467, "relative_strength": -4.939041, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.397038, "energy": 24.859726, "activity_lines": [ 90.356968, 88.801966, 87.434989, 87.748561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.91, "volume": 2590845, "typical_volume": 3968837.5, "trend": 88.922859, "fair_value": 83.533696, "relative_strength": -4.321275, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.978863, "energy": 46.911505, "activity_lines": [ 93.107859, 90.434414, 88.364603, 88.292162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }