{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d357f373-0a9a-4152-9244-4dbe17bc79c9", "symbol": "000798", "name": "CNFC Overseas Fisheries Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.562, "architecture_energy": 38.975, "architecture_maturity": 91.056, "architecture_confidence": 91.101, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 33.88, "downward_expansion": 67.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.828667, 7.678182, 8.062286, 8.65157 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.07, "trend_reference": 9.502, "distance_from_trend": -0.150705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.197692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.442286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301299, "excess_performance": -0.308698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31475427, "relative_activity": 0.92034, "balance": 0.544474, "dry_up": 1.113151, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067963, "annualized_volatility": 0.346999, "from_high_reference": -0.513855, "from_low_reference": 0.162824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.502, "fair_value_reference": 8.197692, "structural_low": 6.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.009648, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.125217, "worst_return": -0.151131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05577, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.038748, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.481844, "worst_return": -0.237401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118132, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.069276, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.710894, "worst_return": -0.340596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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29224168, "typical_volume": 59575873.25, "trend": 9.934667, "fair_value": 8.259744, "relative_strength": -29.871938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.377549, "energy": 85.824914, "activity_lines": [ 7.372, 7.712727, 8.480524, 9.15228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.84, "volume": 49547020, "typical_volume": 54083784.65, "trend": 9.823667, "fair_value": 8.244551, "relative_strength": -17.411955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.319637, "energy": 64.269871, "activity_lines": [ 7.506667, 7.666364, 8.350571, 9.01714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.42, "volume": 42601716, "typical_volume": 45244294.75, "trend": 9.697, "fair_value": 8.225513, "relative_strength": -21.837021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.248734, "energy": 63.488593, "activity_lines": [ 7.501333, 7.573818, 8.200095, 8.862065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 28653968, "typical_volume": 41352118.1, "trend": 9.585667, "fair_value": 8.211346, "relative_strength": -14.724654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.480717, "energy": 51.576637, "activity_lines": [ 7.676667, 7.607818, 8.118857, 8.749355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.07, "volume": 31475427, "typical_volume": 34199780.85, "trend": 9.502, "fair_value": 8.197692, "relative_strength": -17.442286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.562136, "energy": 38.974762, "activity_lines": [ 7.828667, 7.678182, 8.062286, 8.65157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }