{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d35c590d-0934-414b-8dd9-361ee4d8852a", "symbol": "AUPH", "name": "Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.034, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.739, "architecture_energy": 14.766, "architecture_maturity": 18.267, "architecture_confidence": 81.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.19, "rotation_up": 24.83, "upward_expansion": 52.25, "deceleration": 87.7, "rotation_down": 32.72, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.501333, 15.735455, 15.720714, 15.510237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.85, "trend_reference": 15.21, "distance_from_trend": 0.042078, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.872179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.605522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.863354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097645, "excess_performance": -0.089808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042078, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.605522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.030416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7191338, "relative_activity": 1.073899, "balance": 2.030416, "dry_up": 0.843519, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087537, "annualized_volatility": 0.256421, "from_high_reference": -0.176623, "from_low_reference": 0.532882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.21, "fair_value_reference": 9.872179, "structural_low": 13.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.058153, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.036737, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.37402, "worst_return": -0.247396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.274956, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.257586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.536566, "worst_return": -0.387133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.47544, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.232906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.611208, "worst_return": -0.401806, "sufficient": false }, { 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25.610737, "activity_lines": [ 16.044667, 16.000727, 15.761667, 15.480645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.35, "volume": 4298566, "typical_volume": 6479062.1, "trend": 15.202333, "fair_value": 9.799038, "relative_strength": -2.258215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.332498, "energy": 15.084956, "activity_lines": [ 15.758667, 15.909273, 15.75181, 15.488237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.88, "volume": 6386809, "typical_volume": 6563989.85, "trend": 15.186667, "fair_value": 9.831474, "relative_strength": -5.97513, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.740595, "energy": 12.620465, "activity_lines": [ 15.39, 15.731091, 15.692286, 15.467441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 7191338, "typical_volume": 6696477.6, "trend": 15.21, "fair_value": 9.872179, "relative_strength": -4.863354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.739328, "energy": 14.766265, "activity_lines": [ 15.501333, 15.735455, 15.720714, 15.510237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }