{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d362082a-b15c-40f1-a409-4ab00ae5dd38", "symbol": "PIPR", "name": "Piper Sandler Companies", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.447, "architecture_energy": 24.282, "architecture_maturity": 29.895, "architecture_confidence": 95.602, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.56, "rotation_up": 23.42, "upward_expansion": 6.84, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 38.87, "downward_expansion": 68.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.344, 75.378909, 77.117612, 77.609077 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 74.79, "trend_reference": 79.014688, "distance_from_trend": -0.053467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.328738, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.62301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161215, "excess_performance": -0.286839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2834800, "relative_activity": 0.956046, "balance": 0.548835, "dry_up": 1.002277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070691, "annualized_volatility": 0.377424, "from_high_reference": -0.196243, "from_low_reference": 0.091483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.014688, "fair_value_reference": 64.328738, "structural_low": 68.521473, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.048381, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.026036, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.264639, "worst_return": -0.133602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104523, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.355754, "worst_return": -0.14219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.266085, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.14215, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.582128, "worst_return": -0.194498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.249689, "energy": 55.483789, "activity_lines": [ 74.395333, 76.240857, 77.976994, 78.691587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.32, "volume": 3139845, "typical_volume": 2688384.5, "trend": 80.11487, "fair_value": 63.544112, "relative_strength": -13.522399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.688002, "energy": 56.139694, "activity_lines": [ 74.49, 76.023618, 77.844045, 78.428332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.09, "volume": 2446569, "typical_volume": 2761813.4, "trend": 79.795772, "fair_value": 63.806781, "relative_strength": -13.012278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.782052, "energy": 51.235438, "activity_lines": [ 74.69, 75.84645, 77.670151, 78.168663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.8, "volume": 3466309, "typical_volume": 2884575.45, "trend": 79.467822, "fair_value": 64.068566, "relative_strength": -13.975863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.330676, "energy": 29.059081, "activity_lines": [ 75.174, 75.662, 77.454845, 77.910872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.79, "volume": 2834800, "typical_volume": 2965128.15, "trend": 79.014688, "fair_value": 64.328738, "relative_strength": -17.62301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.446658, "energy": 24.281547, "activity_lines": [ 75.344, 75.378909, 77.117612, 77.609077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }