{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3698ca4-cda5-461d-839d-c4d33029abc8", "symbol": "605080", "name": "Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.323, "architecture_energy": 49.317, "architecture_maturity": 31.159, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.37, "rotation_up": 21.31, "upward_expansion": 7.58, "deceleration": 53.75, "rotation_down": 56.26, "downward_expansion": 80.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.733267, 19.912655, 21.557914, 22.372124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.09, "trend_reference": 23.343686, "distance_from_trend": -0.139382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.880606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.348147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228495, "excess_performance": -0.185291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7213750, "relative_activity": 0.893505, "balance": 0.388719, "dry_up": 1.027996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094582, "annualized_volatility": 0.35102, "from_high_reference": -0.354019, "from_low_reference": 0.069983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.343686, "fair_value_reference": 22.880606, "structural_low": 18.776007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.029557, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.02744, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.187384, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.095974, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.063452, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.472765, "worst_return": -0.212955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063563, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.104954, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.297382, "worst_return": -0.245516, "sufficient": true }, { 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23.763686, "fair_value": 23.145332, "relative_strength": -21.182111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.025319, "energy": 79.368141, "activity_lines": [ 20.127695, 21.487425, 22.871211, 23.392086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.440001, "volume": 7017300, "typical_volume": 7653394.8, "trend": 23.661686, "fair_value": 23.080256, "relative_strength": -17.062818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.137343, "energy": 78.525713, "activity_lines": [ 19.793656, 20.848687, 22.48397, 23.113139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.370001, "volume": 11886940, "typical_volume": 7900855.8, "trend": 23.543353, "fair_value": 23.01258, "relative_strength": -17.854226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.032027, "energy": 64.685069, "activity_lines": [ 19.560151, 20.339404, 22.118301, 22.836256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 7080280, "typical_volume": 7998963.8, "trend": 23.440686, "fair_value": 22.944552, "relative_strength": -16.260207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.805214, "energy": 53.804583, "activity_lines": [ 19.602911, 20.028484, 21.808917, 22.588298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.09, "volume": 7213750, "typical_volume": 8073543.3, "trend": 23.343686, "fair_value": 22.880606, "relative_strength": -16.348147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.323083, "energy": 49.317153, "activity_lines": [ 19.733267, 19.912655, 21.557914, 22.372124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }