{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d369e0c2-e198-4282-b413-d8e0b35bb453", "symbol": "SCYX", "name": "Scynexis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.201, "architecture_energy": 31.258, "architecture_maturity": 59.107, "architecture_confidence": 85.109, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.46, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 17.05, "deceleration": 45.96, "rotation_down": 30.2, "downward_expansion": 62.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.644667, 4.451636, 5.039985, 5.517665 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.24, "trend_reference": 5.91932, "distance_from_trend": -0.114763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.366162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.45069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137022, "excess_performance": -0.324476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039433, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 869551, "relative_activity": 0.454102, "balance": 0.506941, "dry_up": 0.639839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169532, "annualized_volatility": 0.765761, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.484419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.91932, "fair_value_reference": 10.366162, "structural_low": 3.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.414634, "median_excess_return": 0.011701, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.704545, "worst_return": -0.310078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.032617, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.065525, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.10303, "worst_return": -0.513043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.225806, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.279781, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.738095, "worst_return": -0.434813, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.433333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.347125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.211503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054018, 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4.991156, 5.978533, 6.097132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.43, "volume": 498525, "typical_volume": 2060529.45, "trend": 6.016253, "fair_value": 10.968854, "relative_strength": -37.807356, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.560146, "energy": 80.21806, "activity_lines": [ 4.191333, 4.748276, 5.794983, 5.993041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.38, "volume": 518432, "typical_volume": 2020398.2, "trend": 5.990013, "fair_value": 10.855905, "relative_strength": -39.11761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.428366, "energy": 72.645538, "activity_lines": [ 4.233333, 4.564124, 5.614147, 5.887476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.27, "volume": 230933, "typical_volume": 1936326.35, "trend": 5.965147, "fair_value": 10.730969, "relative_strength": -37.558092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.794671, "energy": 59.755147, "activity_lines": [ 4.260667, 4.424378, 5.431844, 5.776508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.73, "volume": 379011, "typical_volume": 1848617.9, "trend": 5.93292, "fair_value": 10.604623, "relative_strength": -44.033695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.495213, "energy": 57.074924, "activity_lines": [ 4.105333, 4.242007, 5.20635, 5.632305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.84, "volume": 3421365, "typical_volume": 1928894.75, "trend": 5.923987, "fair_value": 10.485905, "relative_strength": -27.368658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.058127, "energy": 41.639718, "activity_lines": [ 4.341333, 4.301273, 5.099286, 5.561794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.24, "volume": 869551, "typical_volume": 1914880.7, "trend": 5.91932, "fair_value": 10.366162, "relative_strength": -24.45069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.201062, "energy": 31.25769, "activity_lines": [ 4.644667, 4.451636, 5.039985, 5.517665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }