{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d37772ae-33bd-4da9-a513-0f78d44b6321", "symbol": "TREE", "name": "Lendingtree Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.772, "architecture_energy": 58.526, "architecture_maturity": 29.461, "architecture_confidence": 74.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.4, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 32.1, "rotation_down": 67.31, "downward_expansion": 81.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.192667, 38.717636, 39.182619, 39.959183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.13, "trend_reference": 42.458333, "distance_from_trend": -0.243258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.493782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.695056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323009, "excess_performance": -0.510462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.446951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.07238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3746846, "relative_activity": 2.68786, "balance": 2.07238, "dry_up": 1.514612, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152472, "annualized_volatility": 0.670235, "from_high_reference": -0.584589, "from_low_reference": 0.079274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.458333, "fair_value_reference": 42.493782, "structural_low": 29.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.140099, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.157106, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.339745, "worst_return": -0.290728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.092055, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086106, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.976109, "worst_return": -0.565047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120959, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.683547, "worst_return": -0.323009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.342665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.111913, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.962991, "worst_return": -0.277661, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.189698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.202101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.374548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.282747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155327, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.290728, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.33, "volume": 806042, "typical_volume": 1396094.55, "trend": 26.035, "fair_value": 128.808526, "relative_strength": -36.288782, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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1091068, "typical_volume": 1219153.5, "trend": 44.139, "fair_value": 42.355577, "relative_strength": -30.616102, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.70755, "energy": 21.550675, "activity_lines": [ 43.105333, 41.63, 40.824048, 41.483914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.86, "volume": 2544580, "typical_volume": 1268148.45, "trend": 43.484333, "fair_value": 42.419359, "relative_strength": -43.050734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.802234, "energy": 24.617189, "activity_lines": [ 39.31, 40.107818, 39.971238, 40.69172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.13, "volume": 3746846, "typical_volume": 1393988.4, "trend": 42.458333, "fair_value": 42.493782, "relative_strength": -44.695056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.771512, "energy": 58.525776, "activity_lines": [ 36.192667, 38.717636, 39.182619, 39.959183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }