{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d37a6080-6487-4644-ba6e-773f43c3c1ab", "symbol": "300385", "name": "Wuxi Xuelang Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.859, "architecture_energy": 59.774, "architecture_maturity": 18.554, "architecture_confidence": 49.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 18.62, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 65.48, "downward_expansion": 60.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.63, 11.217818, 12.655809, 13.032344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.1, "trend_reference": 12.787, "distance_from_trend": -0.131931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.604936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.680561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.264916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048843, "excess_performance": -0.056243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.680561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.041808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122649, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.63125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32399600, "relative_activity": 0.413468, "balance": 0.524503, "dry_up": 0.384831, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155371, "annualized_volatility": 0.756755, "from_high_reference": -0.497738, "from_low_reference": 1.293388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.787, "fair_value_reference": 6.604936, "structural_low": 9.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017982, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.111834, "worst_return": -0.099792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013004, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064145, "worst_return": -0.101871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.245774, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057566, "worst_return": -0.268191, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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12.362667, "fair_value": 6.524167, "relative_strength": 14.071829, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.509322, "energy": 60.250206, "activity_lines": [ 11.484, 12.510545, 13.664381, 13.428925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.93, "volume": 27992780, "typical_volume": 81033183.65, "trend": 12.49, "fair_value": 6.547821, "relative_strength": 5.878353, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.020149, "energy": 65.664054, "activity_lines": [ 10.875333, 11.892545, 13.266524, 13.271978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.3, "volume": 27115924, "typical_volume": 77721184.0, "trend": 12.624333, "fair_value": 6.57391, "relative_strength": 10.584042, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.703489, "energy": 66.497133, "activity_lines": [ 10.622, 11.442727, 12.915619, 13.130688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.1, "volume": 32399600, "typical_volume": 78360601.2, "trend": 12.787, "fair_value": 6.604936, "relative_strength": 12.264916, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.859152, "energy": 59.774314, "activity_lines": [ 10.63, 11.217818, 12.655809, 13.032344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }