{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d38166dc-a31c-48f7-8572-618125055def", "symbol": "8476", "name": "Taiwan Environment Scientific Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.818, "architecture_energy": 26.711, "architecture_maturity": 59.671, "architecture_confidence": 76.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.89, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 62.87, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 36.23, "downward_expansion": 17.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.726667, 21.765443, 20.469696, 19.890909 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.1, "trend_reference": 19.450638, "distance_from_trend": 0.033385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.655564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420007, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.426594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113504, "excess_performance": -0.327868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.420007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158805, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.950542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1558105, "relative_activity": 0.35985, "balance": 1.950542, "dry_up": 0.881351, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108244, "annualized_volatility": 0.504997, "from_high_reference": -0.190987, "from_low_reference": 0.342104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.450638, "fair_value_reference": 34.655564, "structural_low": 14.976483, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052501, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155063, "worst_return": 0.009042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137094, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.143036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196431, "worst_return": 0.077758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054477, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.132471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119803, "worst_return": -0.01085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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70.264347, "energy": 89.25073, "activity_lines": [ 23.812181, 21.765146, 19.916268, 19.481084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.25, "volume": 7245172, "typical_volume": 4439339.55, "trend": 19.212785, "fair_value": 35.429204, "relative_strength": -12.946268, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.809935, "energy": 86.471365, "activity_lines": [ 23.737021, 22.366947, 20.305863, 19.75305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.35, "volume": 4420786, "typical_volume": 4512376.05, "trend": 19.254428, "fair_value": 35.169946, "relative_strength": -25.664926, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.611904, "energy": 45.403111, "activity_lines": [ 22.25, 22.127263, 20.303523, 19.761903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.5, "volume": 2040505, "typical_volume": 4438150.2, "trend": 19.345975, "fair_value": 34.915761, "relative_strength": -22.24737, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.66016, "energy": 26.661563, "activity_lines": [ 21.43, 22.030677, 20.4083, 19.842262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.1, "volume": 1558105, "typical_volume": 4329878.45, "trend": 19.450638, "fair_value": 34.655564, "relative_strength": -25.426594, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.817902, "energy": 26.710772, "activity_lines": [ 20.726667, 21.765443, 20.469696, 19.890909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }