{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3832f07-7b22-420c-a709-ee7ac137500e", "symbol": "SDD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 NEW APR 2021(R/S)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.234, "architecture_energy": 63.502, "architecture_maturity": 85.1, "architecture_confidence": 90.624, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 28.8, "upward_expansion": 11.34, "deceleration": 59.91, "rotation_down": 51.88, "downward_expansion": 82.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.2326, 8.294412, 8.700778, 9.230988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.9647, "trend_reference": 9.835586, "distance_from_trend": -0.190216, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.05779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.471058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.305925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223428, "excess_performance": -0.349053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190216, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.471058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7176, "relative_activity": 0.41019, "balance": 1.005306, "dry_up": 0.562124, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060318, "annualized_volatility": 0.299357, "from_high_reference": -0.46559, "from_low_reference": 0.022426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.835586, "fair_value_reference": 15.05779, "structural_low": 7.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.029101, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050078, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.268167, "worst_return": -0.210987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.057266, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.109478, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.169795, "worst_return": -0.210132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.101882, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.200979, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.307917, "worst_return": -0.308396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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8.3266, "volume": 19514, "typical_volume": 21144.7, "trend": 10.308758, "fair_value": 15.329328, "relative_strength": -35.666605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.533062, "energy": 85.818919, "activity_lines": [ 8.30908, 8.625327, 9.243281, 9.712509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.2745, "volume": 4492, "typical_volume": 20640.8, "trend": 10.186148, "fair_value": 15.261621, "relative_strength": -34.16486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.769463, "energy": 85.094718, "activity_lines": [ 8.278433, 8.51446, 9.08828, 9.581266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.4469, "volume": 14530, "typical_volume": 19464.5, "trend": 10.072317, "fair_value": 15.19734, "relative_strength": -31.526714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.059763, "energy": 69.497527, "activity_lines": [ 8.32506, 8.452325, 8.961434, 9.469057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.3623, "volume": 13138, "typical_volume": 18255.85, "trend": 9.944742, "fair_value": 15.130514, "relative_strength": -31.850477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.440461, "energy": 59.852089, "activity_lines": [ 8.35404, 8.400298, 8.841233, 9.358733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9647, "volume": 7176, "typical_volume": 17494.35, "trend": 9.835586, "fair_value": 15.05779, "relative_strength": -36.305925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.234413, "energy": 63.502406, "activity_lines": [ 8.2326, 8.294412, 8.700778, 9.230988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }