{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d389762d-bd0e-41ee-a61d-c83ab2d0329e", "symbol": "LICHSGFIN", "name": "LIC Housing Finance Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.455, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.347, "architecture_energy": 40.502, "architecture_maturity": 24.213, "architecture_confidence": 74.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.27, "rotation_up": 17.45, "upward_expansion": 22.6, "deceleration": 51.51, "rotation_down": 62.03, "downward_expansion": 45.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 525.296667, 536.228186, 541.580958, 537.634305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 504.25, "trend_reference": 532.283336, "distance_from_trend": -0.052666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 568.819997, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.563553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026732, "excess_performance": 0.016977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.244496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8782122, "relative_activity": 1.401364, "balance": 0.244496, "dry_up": 1.144232, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046939, "annualized_volatility": 0.201096, "from_high_reference": -0.157055, "from_low_reference": 0.098823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 532.283336, "fair_value_reference": 568.819997, "structural_low": 458.899994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.029305, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.024537, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056682, "worst_return": -0.102202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058253, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026014, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.039375, "worst_return": -0.099438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043334, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025716, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.134623, "worst_return": -0.06919, 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23.012387, "activity_lines": [ 550.453349, 549.83092, 546.33358, 539.85549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 538.950012, "volume": 4440009, "typical_volume": 6353366.4, "trend": 533.820004, "fair_value": 567.42213, "relative_strength": 2.89419, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.128683, "energy": 13.900637, "activity_lines": [ 546.603349, 548.164557, 546.48239, 540.185383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 523.099976, "volume": 8511038, "typical_volume": 6318642.95, "trend": 533.07167, "fair_value": 568.176302, "relative_strength": -2.539839, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.751596, "energy": 8.215466, "activity_lines": [ 538.200004, 543.763642, 544.992387, 539.493768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 504.25, "volume": 8782122, "typical_volume": 6266839.05, "trend": 532.283336, "fair_value": 568.819997, "relative_strength": -6.563553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.346998, "energy": 40.50232, "activity_lines": [ 525.296667, 536.228186, 541.580958, 537.634305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }