{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d38d65ed-21ee-47f7-a17a-53bf3c8c2c68", "symbol": "MSTCLTD", "name": "MSTC Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.46, "architecture_energy": 29.614, "architecture_maturity": 71.612, "architecture_confidence": 94.262, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.37, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 63.62, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 18.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 607.360006, 625.735461, 573.949051, 537.496115 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 591.25, "trend_reference": 499.934363, "distance_from_trend": 0.182655, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 573.280965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031344, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.682661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.311208, "excess_performance": 0.354917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.196827, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.311208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.295053, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 687349, "relative_activity": 0.551485, "balance": 1.295053, "dry_up": 1.111442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104524, "annualized_volatility": 0.557964, "from_high_reference": -0.205202, "from_low_reference": 0.632611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 499.934363, "fair_value_reference": 573.280965, "structural_low": 362.149994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.022736, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013404, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.307701, "worst_return": -0.064352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065948, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.047582, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.122703, "worst_return": -0.179328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.071322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.290248, "worst_return": -0.159751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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570.522941, "relative_strength": 28.491458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.838316, "energy": 58.114786, "activity_lines": [ 633.663342, 622.994551, 556.240478, 523.265317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 618.200012, "volume": 813689, "typical_volume": 1261927.55, "trend": 496.073599, "fair_value": 571.952723, "relative_strength": 26.713168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.063841, "energy": 42.388321, "activity_lines": [ 624.030009, 628.560007, 566.866193, 531.355702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 591.25, "volume": 687349, "typical_volume": 1246360.1, "trend": 499.934363, "fair_value": 573.280965, "relative_strength": 19.682661, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.460191, "energy": 29.613898, "activity_lines": [ 607.360006, 625.735461, 573.949051, 537.496115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }