{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d398a64c-8b54-4394-a946-22c711643d60", "symbol": "NWPX", "name": "Northwest Pipe Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.558, "architecture_energy": 27.363, "architecture_maturity": 72.627, "architecture_confidence": 91.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.72, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 58.35, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 22.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.942667, 130.542, 124.163381, 113.796086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 119.72, "trend_reference": 100.155333, "distance_from_trend": 0.195343, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.77641, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.268438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.105113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.610872, "excess_performance": 0.423418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.195343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.305903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.268438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.311051, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.610872, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 769028, "relative_activity": 0.905659, "balance": 0.743726, "dry_up": 1.258537, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10869, "annualized_volatility": 0.454196, "from_high_reference": -0.212524, "from_low_reference": 1.486397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.155333, "fair_value_reference": 52.77641, "structural_low": 69.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.072244, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01968, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.220783, "worst_return": -0.118156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064227, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133252, "worst_return": -0.159219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041764, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.473716, "worst_return": -0.118082, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": 66.111825, "energy": 66.078784, "activity_lines": [ 137.892667, 131.531455, 116.555857, 105.429398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 138.2, "volume": 850892, "typical_volume": 783441.8, "trend": 94.185667, "fair_value": 51.002885, "relative_strength": 64.918751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.321026, "energy": 64.239692, "activity_lines": [ 138.168667, 133.783091, 119.876429, 108.428301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.31, "volume": 993714, "typical_volume": 808756.85, "trend": 96.361, "fair_value": 51.624615, "relative_strength": 54.00983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.428525, "energy": 52.246676, "activity_lines": [ 134.858, 133.951455, 122.061762, 110.694387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.08, "volume": 1661042, "typical_volume": 859324.45, "trend": 98.362667, "fair_value": 52.207756, "relative_strength": 43.4189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.265146, "energy": 39.258811, "activity_lines": [ 130.129333, 132.650545, 123.396714, 112.418194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.72, "volume": 769028, "typical_volume": 849136.25, "trend": 100.155333, "fair_value": 52.77641, "relative_strength": 31.105113, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.557643, "energy": 27.363244, "activity_lines": [ 125.942667, 130.542, 124.163381, 113.796086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }