{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d39a5a20-f24d-406f-9716-c5c4db624c92", "symbol": "EXAI", "name": "Expert.ai S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.907, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.194, "architecture_energy": 20.569, "architecture_maturity": 26.071, "architecture_confidence": 95.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.3, "rotation_up": 24.54, "upward_expansion": 5.61, "deceleration": 43.89, "rotation_down": 39.55, "downward_expansion": 69.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.670133, 1.673636, 1.67999, 1.682916 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.658, "trend_reference": 1.689733, "distance_from_trend": -0.01878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.371888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208553, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.50928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008373, "excess_performance": -0.179265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500674, "relative_activity": 0.879184, "balance": 0.391903, "dry_up": 0.807149, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044354, "annualized_volatility": 0.178669, "from_high_reference": -0.15752, "from_low_reference": 0.206696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.689733, "fair_value_reference": 1.371888, "structural_low": 1.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020571, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.015649, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.045061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.208276, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.133665, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.661308, "worst_return": -0.142114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.179616, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.068351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226755, "worst_return": -0.230503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029326, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.280347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.831731, "worst_return": -0.750087, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032457, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043219, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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1.684667, 1.675164, 1.68961, 1.690602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.65, "volume": 603655, "typical_volume": 695630.75, "trend": 1.696733, "fair_value": 1.360157, "relative_strength": -11.492344, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.321316, "energy": 16.034223, "activity_lines": [ 1.675467, 1.671164, 1.686057, 1.687634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.676, "volume": 289618, "typical_volume": 665628.85, "trend": 1.6996, "fair_value": 1.363811, "relative_strength": -9.642568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.727558, "energy": 12.954456, "activity_lines": [ 1.675867, 1.6728, 1.684714, 1.686297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.686, "volume": 444661, "typical_volume": 635365.75, "trend": 1.6968, "fair_value": 1.367978, "relative_strength": -9.585416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.788718, "energy": 11.808741, "activity_lines": [ 1.677867, 1.676145, 1.683914, 1.685419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.658, "volume": 500674, "typical_volume": 569475.7, "trend": 1.689733, "fair_value": 1.371888, "relative_strength": -13.50928, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.193893, "energy": 20.569189, "activity_lines": [ 1.670133, 1.673636, 1.67999, 1.682916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }