{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d39ce5d8-5550-464a-9e95-310b3353a030", "symbol": "CEBW", "name": "iShares US Mortgage Backed Securities UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.714, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.087, "architecture_energy": 50.991, "architecture_maturity": 8.794, "architecture_confidence": 89.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 15.58, "upward_expansion": 8.91, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 60.6, "downward_expansion": 82.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.914293, 4.922296, 4.93531, 4.9452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.9116, "trend_reference": 4.960867, "distance_from_trend": -0.009931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.824497, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.545988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022681, "excess_performance": -0.057354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18506, "relative_activity": 0.651723, "balance": 0.635702, "dry_up": 0.248948, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006622, "annualized_volatility": 0.041011, "from_high_reference": -0.035231, "from_low_reference": 0.013523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.960867, "fair_value_reference": 4.824497, "structural_low": 4.873149, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012209, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003186, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 4.624777, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-08", "close": 4.666415, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 4.615933, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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4.821667, "relative_strength": -4.4038, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.486538, "energy": 62.952354, "activity_lines": [ 4.930873, 4.942958, 4.949534, 4.958818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.896, "volume": 9733, "typical_volume": 36986.8, "trend": 4.967645, "fair_value": 4.822252, "relative_strength": -6.349464, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.389739, "energy": 71.785551, "activity_lines": [ 4.915133, 4.93375, 4.943994, 4.954039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.925, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 31608.3, "trend": 4.965057, "fair_value": 4.823055, "relative_strength": -8.150338, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.698891, "energy": 65.69992, "activity_lines": [ 4.915193, 4.930337, 4.941563, 4.951287 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.922, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 27524.85, "trend": 4.9629, "fair_value": 4.823822, "relative_strength": -8.515881, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.24613, "energy": 63.242961, "activity_lines": [ 4.91596, 4.927154, 4.938923, 4.94851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 4.9116, "volume": 18506, "typical_volume": 28395.5, "trend": 4.960867, "fair_value": 4.824497, "relative_strength": -7.545988, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.087209, "energy": 50.991476, "activity_lines": [ 4.914293, 4.922296, 4.93531, 4.9452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }