{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d39fb2f8-3d11-42ee-b0f8-8f7670269a68", "symbol": "002200", "name": "YCIC Eco-Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.559, "architecture_energy": 25.758, "architecture_maturity": 48.716, "architecture_confidence": 68.597, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.95, "rotation_up": 23.59, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 66.24, "rotation_down": 32.85, "downward_expansion": 59.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.475333, 6.406182, 6.727619, 6.908968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.87, "trend_reference": 7.082667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.878397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.037524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025373, "excess_performance": 0.017973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025373, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22589120, "relative_activity": 1.654552, "balance": 0.574816, "dry_up": 1.65956, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101444, "annualized_volatility": 0.390194, "from_high_reference": -0.21843, "from_low_reference": 0.22242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.082667, "fair_value_reference": 6.878397, "structural_low": 5.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.017519, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.03216, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.134969, "worst_return": -0.232044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124498, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009347, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.245968, "worst_return": -0.209549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067883, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.010772, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.251397, "worst_return": -0.342175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103953, "active": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.954091, "energy": 54.822777, "activity_lines": [ 6.33, 6.510727, 6.919143, 7.050688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.93, "volume": 23739015, "typical_volume": 12460385.9, "trend": 7.144667, "fair_value": 6.898269, "relative_strength": -19.555918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.44679, "energy": 47.215739, "activity_lines": [ 6.217333, 6.357455, 6.802429, 6.968882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.45, "volume": 21522113, "typical_volume": 13003994.7, "trend": 7.104, "fair_value": 6.886795, "relative_strength": -10.623553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.386648, "energy": 37.832952, "activity_lines": [ 6.300667, 6.332909, 6.742429, 6.924065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.87, "volume": 22589120, "typical_volume": 13652710.7, "trend": 7.082667, "fair_value": 6.878397, "relative_strength": -9.037524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.55946, "energy": 25.757575, "activity_lines": [ 6.475333, 6.406182, 6.727619, 6.908968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }