{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3aab1a5-3180-4834-b5c7-093e07c0736f", "symbol": "GFGT", "name": "Global Fashion Group S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.953, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -16.593, "architecture_energy": 48.816, "architecture_maturity": 41.992, "architecture_confidence": 70.835, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.8, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 52.11, "deceleration": 66.8, "rotation_down": 52.41, "downward_expansion": 46.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4402, 0.451964, 0.468195, 0.456712 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.43, "trend_reference": 0.424733, "distance_from_trend": 0.0124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.298085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.276188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.530249, "excess_performance": 0.356002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.530249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050447, "annualized_volatility": 0.617975, "from_high_reference": -0.240283, "from_low_reference": 0.784232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.424733, "fair_value_reference": 0.298085, "structural_low": 0.246, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.033934, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062735, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.227876, "worst_return": -0.155629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412148, "worst_return": -0.150307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064877, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076829, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.366594, "worst_return": -0.12381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.595932, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.977099, "worst_return": 0.214765, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049822, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061017, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, 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0.479405, 0.445273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.462, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2035.15, "trend": 0.402433, "fair_value": 0.300092, "relative_strength": 3.700448, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.963723, "energy": 17.434286, "activity_lines": [ 0.471533, 0.479564, 0.480224, 0.449546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.439, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2035.15, "trend": 0.4086, "fair_value": 0.298931, "relative_strength": 0.367951, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.560124, "energy": 15.896126, "activity_lines": [ 0.460267, 0.471091, 0.477967, 0.451905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.435, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2035.15, "trend": 0.413867, "fair_value": 0.298383, "relative_strength": -1.781542, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.86565, "energy": 25.276827, "activity_lines": [ 0.450133, 0.462927, 0.474514, 0.453609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.452, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1960.15, "trend": 0.420033, "fair_value": 0.298108, "relative_strength": 2.269319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.393931, "energy": 26.263438, "activity_lines": [ 0.448133, 0.459018, 0.47239, 0.456069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 715.25, "trend": 0.424733, "fair_value": 0.298085, "relative_strength": -5.276188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.593023, "energy": 48.816339, "activity_lines": [ 0.4402, 0.451964, 0.468195, 0.456712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }