{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3b2e174-f758-47b9-87b1-b317ee6cdc29", "symbol": "RELX", "name": "Relx PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.581, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.248, "architecture_energy": 31.933, "architecture_maturity": 13.593, "architecture_confidence": 65.631, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.11, "rotation_up": 64.22, "upward_expansion": 48.32, "deceleration": 40.49, "rotation_down": 19.27, "downward_expansion": 11.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.644523, 33.668482, 33.516531, 33.463178 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.52, "trend_reference": 33.675957, "distance_from_trend": 0.054758, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.387005, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.497977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.232601, "excess_performance": 0.106976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063509, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232601, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.553967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14671776, "relative_activity": 1.080614, "balance": 2.553967, "dry_up": 1.099123, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06077, "annualized_volatility": 0.315466, "from_high_reference": -0.260565, "from_low_reference": 0.313761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.675957, "fair_value_reference": 41.387005, "structural_low": 27.036887, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001972, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.00306, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.071742, "worst_return": -0.113534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0274, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.028549, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.188656, "worst_return": -0.088266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088621, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.103719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332306, "worst_return": -0.05662, 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"2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.227089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010686, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.000113, "volume": 3540982, "typical_volume": 3581788.9, "trend": 29.775568, "fair_value": 25.821106, "relative_strength": 0.227424, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 32.322952, 32.546715, 33.050803, 33.293245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.14229, "volume": 13926383, "typical_volume": 13917227.3, "trend": 34.032175, "fair_value": 41.33044, "relative_strength": -17.833616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.6477, "energy": 9.506572, "activity_lines": [ 33.048581, 32.810459, 33.130416, 33.287059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.144432, "volume": 17635123, "typical_volume": 13991301.8, "trend": 33.902407, "fair_value": 41.357762, "relative_strength": -15.331471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.562121, "energy": 15.614913, "activity_lines": [ 33.910772, 33.224732, 33.309538, 33.358817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.52, "volume": 14671776, "typical_volume": 13577254.75, "trend": 33.675957, "fair_value": 41.387005, "relative_strength": -16.497977, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.2481, "energy": 31.932794, "activity_lines": [ 34.644523, 33.668482, 33.516531, 33.463178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }