{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3b956e7-746f-4cbc-b8ba-c807e2eecda7", "symbol": "G1N", "name": "Amundi MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.742, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 26.629, "architecture_energy": 27.479, "architecture_maturity": 69.594, "architecture_confidence": 34.994, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.57, "rotation_up": 45.88, "upward_expansion": 40.01, "deceleration": 31.15, "rotation_down": 21.47, "downward_expansion": 46.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.426, 29.34, 29.052, 29.096946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.0, "trend_reference": 29.462, "distance_from_trend": 0.018261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.068013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.134815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024707, "excess_performance": -0.179543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034377, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.139096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 0.022481, "balance": 0.139096, "dry_up": 0.392019, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013128, "annualized_volatility": 0.223093, "from_high_reference": -0.105012, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.462, "fair_value_reference": 31.068013, "structural_low": 27.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.019186, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.014942, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.081298, "worst_return": -0.102882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008887, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.113127, "worst_return": -0.077017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024311, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00029, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.11026, "worst_return": -0.059609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.030727, 28.821619, 29.187506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 661.45, "trend": 29.772667, "fair_value": 31.002821, "relative_strength": -18.542623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.00087, "energy": 55.168931, "activity_lines": [ 29.478, 29.149818, 28.880381, 29.164538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.870001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 641.7, "trend": 29.668334, "fair_value": 31.022692, "relative_strength": -20.822557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.29175, "energy": 32.077007, "activity_lines": [ 29.283334, 29.143455, 28.892334, 29.106301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.07, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 614.45, "trend": 29.546667, "fair_value": 31.042372, "relative_strength": -20.220425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.674568, "energy": 14.753686, "activity_lines": [ 29.188667, 29.163818, 28.928048, 29.067699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.0, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 355.85, "trend": 29.462, "fair_value": 31.068013, "relative_strength": -18.134815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 26.628813, "energy": 27.479428, "activity_lines": [ 29.426, 29.34, 29.052, 29.096946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }