{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3ba9729-d42c-492b-a1f5-216a3db00cf4", "symbol": "SPXJ", "name": "iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.883, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.593, "architecture_energy": 88.595, "architecture_maturity": 8.724, "architecture_confidence": 66.034, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.15, "rotation_up": 84.8, "upward_expansion": 94.43, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 10.82, "downward_expansion": 21.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4238.676213, 4174.585624, 4140.802128, 4125.315534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4340.0, "trend_reference": 4098.024642, "distance_from_trend": 0.059047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3622.903613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197934, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.46049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080889, "excess_performance": 0.029654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026482, "read": "Rising" 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3904.721714, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001069, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007158, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.072614, "worst_return": -0.068041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009763, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.021515, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.04206, "worst_return": -0.057946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050769, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.082755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072818, "worst_return": -0.104021, "sufficient": 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69.294903, "energy": 51.973846, "activity_lines": [ 4136.312707, 4110.303824, 4106.087355, 4098.681458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4224.0, "volume": 6478, "typical_volume": 4997.85, "trend": 4082.265455, "fair_value": 3616.071356, "relative_strength": -2.00753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.878859, "energy": 68.593887, "activity_lines": [ 4173.460653, 4132.95836, 4118.341857, 4108.687499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4340.0, "volume": 5460, "typical_volume": 5110.6, "trend": 4098.024642, "fair_value": 3622.903613, "relative_strength": 0.46049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.592869, "energy": 88.59476, "activity_lines": [ 4238.676213, 4174.585624, 4140.802128, 4125.315534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }