{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3bd852e-83db-42b6-ab42-1cb3a6d1eae2", "symbol": "2170", "name": "Alujain Corporation", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.342, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.102, "architecture_energy": 7.255, "architecture_maturity": 15.342, "architecture_confidence": 85.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.08, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 46.84, "deceleration": 76.67, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 29.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.432, 27.470182, 27.837905, 27.542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.5, "trend_reference": 26.94, "distance_from_trend": 0.020787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.084168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.86199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111111, "excess_performance": 0.142941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069329, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.635054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2884326, "relative_activity": 1.204011, "balance": 1.635054, "dry_up": 0.888915, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053427, "annualized_volatility": 0.387661, "from_high_reference": -0.237638, "from_low_reference": 0.347379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.94, "fair_value_reference": 34.084168, "structural_low": 20.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008557, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.013421, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.132353, "worst_return": -0.208075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017455, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007956, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.254486, "worst_return": -0.39441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069955, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.088926, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.066642, "worst_return": -0.427019, "sufficient": true }, 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2581368, "typical_volume": 2659457.5, "trend": 26.840098, "fair_value": 34.28018, "relative_strength": -0.626745, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.138746, "energy": 12.975124, "activity_lines": [ 27.653334, 27.805455, 27.997333, 27.514845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.6, "volume": 1845480, "typical_volume": 2346218.45, "trend": 26.839, "fair_value": 34.17578, "relative_strength": -4.316979, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.57982, "energy": 5.542054, "activity_lines": [ 27.362667, 27.535273, 27.874, 27.499355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.5, "volume": 2884326, "typical_volume": 2395597.45, "trend": 26.94, "fair_value": 34.084168, "relative_strength": -2.86199, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.101619, "energy": 7.254658, "activity_lines": [ 27.432, 27.470182, 27.837905, 27.542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }