{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3c2c967-922e-4361-ae49-68ec0d8b0763", "symbol": "ALEXA", "name": "Exacompta Clairefontaine S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.244, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.647, "architecture_energy": 73.651, "architecture_maturity": 14.821, "architecture_confidence": 72.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 73.18, "upward_expansion": 89.6, "deceleration": 46.26, "rotation_down": 9.95, "downward_expansion": 16.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 167.533333, 166.309091, 163.060751, 162.329083 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 168.0, "trend_reference": 162.277553, "distance_from_trend": 0.035263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.265511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118021, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.814758, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018182, "excess_performance": -0.03513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077376, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.102564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64, "relative_activity": 0.751615, "balance": 17.102564, "dry_up": 1.456254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019788, "annualized_volatility": 0.113391, "from_high_reference": -0.04, "from_low_reference": 0.116991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.277553, "fair_value_reference": 150.265511, "structural_low": 150.404142, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002994, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002563, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.047297, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052285, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038961, "worst_return": -0.065609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054078, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025974, "worst_return": -0.134131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 163.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 76.5, "trend": 162.677553, "fair_value": 148.659483, "relative_strength": -4.363351, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.561593, "energy": 46.531817, "activity_lines": [ 163.6, 161.243764, 159.882813, 160.79281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 164.0, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 74.2, "trend": 162.410886, "fair_value": 148.959001, "relative_strength": -1.825086, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.633235, "energy": 54.61184, "activity_lines": [ 163.933333, 162.15263, 160.243162, 160.878129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 169.0, "volume": 358, "typical_volume": 83.95, "trend": 162.377553, "fair_value": 149.29057, "relative_strength": 1.088868, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.379187, "energy": 62.466762, "activity_lines": [ 165.666667, 163.775642, 161.07494, 161.303233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.0, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 84.25, "trend": 162.410886, "fair_value": 149.628013, "relative_strength": 0.596719, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.136916, "energy": 65.769962, "activity_lines": [ 166.933333, 165.095384, 161.887671, 161.730488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 166.0, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 85.25, "trend": 162.310886, "fair_value": 149.946225, "relative_strength": -2.700024, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.279501, "energy": 57.860876, "activity_lines": [ 166.933333, 165.618655, 162.386116, 161.962043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 168.0, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 85.15, "trend": 162.277553, "fair_value": 150.265511, "relative_strength": -3.814758, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.647481, "energy": 73.650965, "activity_lines": [ 167.533333, 166.309091, 163.060751, 162.329083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }