{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3cc52ac-3dcc-4d4d-88d9-e3c671cb1c91", "symbol": "VE", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe All Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.415, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.824, "architecture_energy": 58.71, "architecture_maturity": 27.292, "architecture_confidence": 81.154, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 55.52, "upward_expansion": 80.54, "deceleration": 58.12, "rotation_down": 23.46, "downward_expansion": 9.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.145333, 48.89208, 48.019133, 47.332308 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.919998, "trend_reference": 46.71894, "distance_from_trend": 0.068517, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.058119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311678, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.831512, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071022, "excess_performance": -0.049399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311678, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.624936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64100, "relative_activity": 1.192225, "balance": 1.624936, "dry_up": 1.142472, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022929, "annualized_volatility": 0.192268, "from_high_reference": -0.007555, "from_low_reference": 0.228338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.71894, "fair_value_reference": 38.058119, "structural_low": 42.029999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012884, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.004223, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.11, "worst_return": -0.120069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037767, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.018654, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074392, "worst_return": -0.037227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090694, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00207, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.137211, "worst_return": 0.034934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.509998, "volume": 64100, "typical_volume": 59725.0, "trend": 46.454451, "fair_value": 37.804353, "relative_strength": -2.118271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.655888, "energy": 58.321744, "activity_lines": [ 48.597999, 48.368859, 47.463882, 46.938227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.240002, "volume": 38600, "typical_volume": 55435.0, "trend": 46.597297, "fair_value": 37.930043, "relative_strength": -0.136947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.72244, "energy": 50.021274, "activity_lines": [ 48.797334, 48.591789, 47.722463, 47.11794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.919998, "volume": 64100, "typical_volume": 53765.0, "trend": 46.71894, "fair_value": 38.058119, "relative_strength": -1.831512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.824298, "energy": 58.71002, "activity_lines": [ 49.145333, 48.89208, 48.019133, 47.332308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }