{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3ce9ee9-eff4-4af1-a910-dba148b9265d", "symbol": "L1YG34", "name": "Lloyds Banking Group plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.751, "architecture_energy": 61.544, "architecture_maturity": 17.389, "architecture_confidence": 77.387, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 73.04, "upward_expansion": 84.73, "deceleration": 53.23, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 9.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.161282, 30.585313, 29.276936, 28.629159 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.240002, "trend_reference": 28.222063, "distance_from_trend": 0.142369, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.820078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.713064, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.536881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086023, "excess_performance": 0.143071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.713064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.155369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.656822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1289, "relative_activity": 0.578312, "balance": 1.656822, "dry_up": 0.837184, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049413, "annualized_volatility": 0.267037, "from_high_reference": -0.026758, "from_low_reference": 0.518739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.222063, "fair_value_reference": 18.820078, "structural_low": 24.639587, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.028626, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": 0.02139, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.238496, "worst_return": -0.10421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.103117, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.070687, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.265006, "worst_return": -0.103627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.193728, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.138648, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.39545, "worst_return": -0.041242, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.366679, "energy": 72.509495, "activity_lines": [ 30.032954, 28.974148, 27.995036, 27.849809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.314045, "volume": 3949, "typical_volume": 2813.7, "trend": 27.927653, "fair_value": 18.400428, "relative_strength": 8.101586, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.916646, "energy": 77.589231, "activity_lines": [ 30.304784, 29.366651, 28.275536, 28.008176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.373253, "volume": 1013, "typical_volume": 2515.9, "trend": 27.994026, "fair_value": 18.535033, "relative_strength": 8.041237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.590684, "energy": 76.554516, "activity_lines": [ 30.422082, 29.702573, 28.549416, 28.165956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.024531, "volume": 1213, "typical_volume": 2307.55, "trend": 28.090869, "fair_value": 18.673462, "relative_strength": 7.967333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.055452, "energy": 59.801023, "activity_lines": [ 30.646921, 30.072123, 28.867498, 28.361473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.240002, "volume": 1289, "typical_volume": 2228.9, "trend": 28.222063, "fair_value": 18.820078, "relative_strength": 15.536881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.751241, "energy": 61.543505, "activity_lines": [ 31.161282, 30.585313, 29.276936, 28.629159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }