{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3d1e1b1-e1e1-4925-a836-e8c364321bc6", "symbol": "DPP", "name": "DP Poland Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.302, "architecture_energy": 34.498, "architecture_maturity": 27.376, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.98, "rotation_up": 15.27, "upward_expansion": 4.54, "deceleration": 45.06, "rotation_down": 56.59, "downward_expansion": 80.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.069067, 0.070218, 0.072288, 0.072305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0662, "trend_reference": 0.072923, "distance_from_trend": -0.092197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.091791, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.633634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145806, "excess_performance": -0.197042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278799, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145806, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.018187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24294128, "relative_activity": 6.699892, "balance": 0.018187, "dry_up": 2.534482, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137114, "annualized_volatility": 0.326969, "from_high_reference": -0.369524, "from_low_reference": 0.141379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.072923, "fair_value_reference": 0.091791, "structural_low": 0.058, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009568, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.433071, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005779, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.433333, "worst_return": -0.144928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059091, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066756, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.453333, "worst_return": -0.175676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.19685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.158353, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 201904, "typical_volume": 633563.7, "trend": 0.0819, "fair_value": 0.078881, "relative_strength": -13.497425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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-18.97025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.645181, "energy": 72.953116, "activity_lines": [ 0.065667, 0.068445, 0.07321, 0.076994 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 0.0635, "volume": 280424, "typical_volume": 679205.95, "trend": 0.079867, "fair_value": 0.07848, "relative_strength": -22.262268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.239742, "energy": 68.151242, "activity_lines": [ 0.064633, 0.067136, 0.0718, 0.07591 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 0.071, "volume": 987188, "typical_volume": 708667.65, "trend": 0.079517, "fair_value": 0.078428, "relative_strength": -12.505969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.413226, "energy": 45.162789, "activity_lines": [ 0.066533, 0.067364, 0.071252, 0.075338 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 0.0685, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.0725, "volume": 697184, "typical_volume": 2047925.25, "trend": 0.0733, "fair_value": 0.091854, "relative_strength": -13.815958, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.943099, "energy": 21.473636, "activity_lines": [ 0.071333, 0.072545, 0.073288, 0.073173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 9141652, "typical_volume": 2447082.7, "trend": 0.073217, "fair_value": 0.091806, "relative_strength": -16.89001, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.95045, "energy": 27.639885, "activity_lines": [ 0.070833, 0.071864, 0.073073, 0.07296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 2627640, "typical_volume": 2529444.4, "trend": 0.073133, "fair_value": 0.091816, "relative_strength": -16.851506, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.396314, "energy": 25.263915, "activity_lines": [ 0.0705, 0.071318, 0.072864, 0.072753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0662, "volume": 24294128, "typical_volume": 3626047.6, "trend": 0.072923, "fair_value": 0.091791, "relative_strength": -20.633634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.302351, "energy": 34.497907, "activity_lines": [ 0.069067, 0.070218, 0.072288, 0.072305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }