{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3d2ce04-95d6-459f-9735-02f1bc52663e", "symbol": "FJP", "name": "FIRST TRUST JAPAN ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.085, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.463, "architecture_energy": 15.357, "architecture_maturity": 17.009, "architecture_confidence": 79.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.91, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 41.51, "deceleration": 78.96, "rotation_down": 34.29, "downward_expansion": 33.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.26124, 75.500965, 75.690984, 75.502523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 77.62, "trend_reference": 75.209458, "distance_from_trend": 0.032051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.366968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.358614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016321, "excess_performance": -0.171133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032051, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.200423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29946, "relative_activity": 0.575267, "balance": 1.200423, "dry_up": 0.799397, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044596, "annualized_volatility": 0.263978, "from_high_reference": -0.057087, "from_low_reference": 0.278503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.209458, "fair_value_reference": 57.366968, "structural_low": 69.739353, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001176, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.020726, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.066478, "worst_return": -0.060782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031854, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113229, "worst_return": -0.026626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053699, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.151272, "worst_return": -0.028282, "sufficient": 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75.782728, 75.614337, 75.403715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.855, "volume": 50959, "typical_volume": 53262.65, "trend": 74.731072, "fair_value": 56.979474, "relative_strength": -3.84755, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.127195, "energy": 12.666938, "activity_lines": [ 74.6536, 75.386226, 75.51305, 75.361863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.2534, "volume": 49014, "typical_volume": 52768.9, "trend": 74.962099, "fair_value": 57.163199, "relative_strength": -3.869307, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.495484, "energy": 16.589452, "activity_lines": [ 74.30584, 75.124792, 75.447494, 75.331046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.62, "volume": 29946, "typical_volume": 52055.8, "trend": 75.209458, "fair_value": 57.366968, "relative_strength": -4.358614, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.462969, "energy": 15.357068, "activity_lines": [ 75.26124, 75.500965, 75.690984, 75.502523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }