{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3d7ab5b-af3f-430c-acf3-3d208b3362a3", "symbol": "LRM", "name": "Lion Rock Minerals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.366, "architecture_energy": 69.007, "architecture_maturity": 18.888, "architecture_confidence": 80.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.54, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 13.73, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 76.52, "downward_expansion": 89.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.019267, 0.021045, 0.022269, 0.022384 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.022817, "distance_from_trend": -0.211103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.779967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.409303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7823457, "relative_activity": 1.660697, "balance": 0.409303, "dry_up": 1.16013, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188034, "annualized_volatility": 0.619765, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022817, "fair_value_reference": 0.016419, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.405405, "median_excess_return": -0.022879, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.019762, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 3.0, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.230392, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.206682, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.538462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.631579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.425532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { 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0.023571, 0.02352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0215, "volume": 2563754, "typical_volume": 5359651.85, "trend": 0.023983, "fair_value": 0.016117, "relative_strength": -35.69828, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.740955, "energy": 22.76679, "activity_lines": [ 0.0229, 0.023891, 0.023429, 0.023329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 6135404, "typical_volume": 5196335.1, "trend": 0.023483, "fair_value": 0.01622, "relative_strength": -41.3664, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.513112, "energy": 37.632006, "activity_lines": [ 0.021467, 0.022882, 0.023055, 0.023008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 5338629, "typical_volume": 4703536.5, "trend": 0.023183, "fair_value": 0.016322, "relative_strength": -41.302787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.546888, "energy": 55.98575, "activity_lines": [ 0.020367, 0.022, 0.0227, 0.022718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 7823457, "typical_volume": 4710946.5, "trend": 0.022817, "fair_value": 0.016419, "relative_strength": -44.779967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.365528, "energy": 69.007437, "activity_lines": [ 0.019267, 0.021045, 0.022269, 0.022384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }