{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3dc4b43-4707-4cfd-b753-6fe41ee68d18", "symbol": "KUN", "name": "Villa Kunalai Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.001, "architecture_energy": 17.733, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.627, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.17, "rotation_up": 28.03, "upward_expansion": 17.04, "deceleration": 38.78, "rotation_down": 33.04, "downward_expansion": 60.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.603333, 0.601091, 0.60181, 0.623591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.664667, "distance_from_trend": -0.097292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.157881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.481812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.678242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.230769, "excess_performance": -0.423094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.481812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.271961, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311600, "relative_activity": 0.316884, "balance": 2.271961, "dry_up": 0.880584, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108974, "annualized_volatility": 0.38005, "from_high_reference": -0.387755, "from_low_reference": 0.132075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.664667, "fair_value_reference": 1.157881, "structural_low": 0.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.033058, "positive_rate": 0.27907, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.015207, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.160714, "worst_return": -0.122449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.032367, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.038237, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.05983, "worst_return": -0.192771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.154235, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.054293, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.057179, "worst_return": -0.216867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 965450.0, "trend": 0.680333, "fair_value": 1.17297, "relative_strength": -36.989876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.576076, "energy": 22.846843, "activity_lines": [ 0.614, 0.598727, 0.606143, 0.633462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 232900, "typical_volume": 970550.0, "trend": 0.672667, "fair_value": 1.165276, "relative_strength": -33.081051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.827346, "energy": 16.118131, "activity_lines": [ 0.610667, 0.6, 0.603714, 0.62828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 311600, "typical_volume": 983325.0, "trend": 0.664667, "fair_value": 1.157881, "relative_strength": -31.678242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.000551, "energy": 17.732739, "activity_lines": [ 0.603333, 0.601091, 0.60181, 0.623591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }