{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3e25e39-383e-4cec-88d2-62553f623fbe", "symbol": "3379", "name": "Taiwan Benefit Company", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.053, "architecture_energy": 58.042, "architecture_maturity": 97.194, "architecture_confidence": 84.509, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.33, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 10.86, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 64.97, "downward_expansion": 84.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.850386, 30.042532, 32.538614, 33.965429 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.65, "trend_reference": 36.601485, "distance_from_trend": -0.189924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.2266, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.383647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.294325, "excess_performance": -0.735697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.543836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2012390, "relative_activity": 0.863655, "balance": 1.306087, "dry_up": 0.527681, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147014, "annualized_volatility": 0.559427, "from_high_reference": -0.58992, "from_low_reference": 0.235417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.601485, "fair_value_reference": 37.2266, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.027748, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038932, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.24058, "worst_return": -0.199234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079561, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.165421, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061947, "worst_return": -0.238776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019776, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032591, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077253, "worst_return": -0.336299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.173457, "energy": 77.341411, "activity_lines": [ 28.953804, 31.017531, 33.423602, 34.95826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.950001, "volume": 1149204, "typical_volume": 2270884.35, "trend": 37.204396, "fair_value": 37.112402, "relative_strength": -53.662231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.238778, "energy": 67.267867, "activity_lines": [ 28.796656, 30.472957, 32.978339, 34.452809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.65, "volume": 2012390, "typical_volume": 2330086.6, "trend": 36.601485, "fair_value": 37.2266, "relative_strength": -54.383647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.052884, "energy": 58.042245, "activity_lines": [ 28.850386, 30.042532, 32.538614, 33.965429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }