{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3e2f0f7-7f7c-4e55-8284-c1d2b07c3c63", "symbol": "JBOG", "name": "Jacques Bogart S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.875, "architecture_energy": 31.502, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.88, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.76, "rotation_up": 32.35, "upward_expansion": 22.67, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 61.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.375333, 2.261818, 2.405429, 2.567312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.45, "trend_reference": 2.843333, "distance_from_trend": -0.138335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.067227, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.142417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326923, "excess_performance": -0.380234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192999, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038467, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.951266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19970, "relative_activity": 2.9672, "balance": 1.951266, "dry_up": 2.631032, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088697, "annualized_volatility": 0.559407, "from_high_reference": -0.467391, "from_low_reference": 0.441176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.843333, "fair_value_reference": 5.067227, "structural_low": 1.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.02589, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.034515, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.2625, "worst_return": -0.185771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.090754, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.106855, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.319149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.180467, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.158027, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.06213, "worst_return": -0.380939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -37.519927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.205612, "energy": 87.660305, "activity_lines": [ 2.042667, 2.185636, 2.454524, 2.666172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.38, "volume": 24874, "typical_volume": 5259.8, "trend": 2.942, "fair_value": 5.129038, "relative_strength": -31.905126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.600243, "energy": 64.969382, "activity_lines": [ 2.149333, 2.194182, 2.430048, 2.626215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.47, "volume": 11126, "typical_volume": 5743.35, "trend": 2.891, "fair_value": 5.097835, "relative_strength": -29.68548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.469596, "energy": 42.322842, "activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.228, 2.417476, 2.595763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.45, "volume": 19970, "typical_volume": 6730.25, "trend": 2.843333, "fair_value": 5.067227, "relative_strength": -31.142417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.87505, "energy": 31.502461, "activity_lines": [ 2.375333, 2.261818, 2.405429, 2.567312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }