{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3e33f9f-69bf-4b13-a76a-57922d21bd89", "symbol": "300522", "name": "Suzhou Sunmun Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.467, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.101, "architecture_energy": 27.157, "architecture_maturity": 60.722, "architecture_confidence": 75.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.11, "rotation_up": 14.74, "upward_expansion": 23.96, "deceleration": 76.16, "rotation_down": 62.57, "downward_expansion": 34.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.718667, 14.854727, 14.631995, 14.108243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.82, "trend_reference": 13.528748, "distance_from_trend": 0.021528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.607309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.093748, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120623, "excess_performance": 0.113223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000937, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169978, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95475517, "relative_activity": 1.610375, "balance": 0.516659, "dry_up": 1.828007, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232161, "annualized_volatility": 1.060978, "from_high_reference": -0.437754, "from_low_reference": 0.356232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.528748, "fair_value_reference": 12.607309, "structural_low": 10.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020756, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.023052, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128627, "worst_return": -0.134815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.152239, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.165552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306584, "worst_return": -0.061481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081177, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.072676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369172, "worst_return": -0.254799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", 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12.597495, "relative_strength": 41.526019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.788461, "energy": 94.064013, "activity_lines": [ 19.562, 16.809273, 14.942847, 14.170547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.469999, "volume": 157790047, "typical_volume": 42199660.8, "trend": 13.549034, "fair_value": 12.624068, "relative_strength": 15.605125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.31243, "energy": 84.584632, "activity_lines": [ 19.580666, 17.203818, 15.293579, 14.433532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.81, "volume": 125420660, "typical_volume": 47318754.7, "trend": 13.561963, "fair_value": 12.620326, "relative_strength": -6.186961, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.078922, "energy": 61.092973, "activity_lines": [ 17.655333, 16.673636, 15.176086, 14.385853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.25, "volume": 105729000, "typical_volume": 51416353.1, "trend": 13.534854, "fair_value": 12.607725, "relative_strength": -16.87227, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.818215, "energy": 10.208405, "activity_lines": [ 15.123333, 15.874545, 14.910405, 14.236694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.21, "volume": 106888600, "typical_volume": 55849824.3, "trend": 13.486141, "fair_value": 12.596137, "relative_strength": -15.038171, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.958477, "energy": 29.757604, "activity_lines": [ 13.108666, 15.106363, 14.644835, 14.086703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.82, "volume": 95475517, "typical_volume": 59287758.65, "trend": 13.528748, "fair_value": 12.607309, "relative_strength": 0.093748, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.101034, "energy": 27.156527, "activity_lines": [ 12.718667, 14.854727, 14.631995, 14.108243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }