{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3e8639b-411d-4c7b-bc09-29a009a7e8f0", "symbol": "PLUG", "name": "Plug Power Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.892, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.624, "architecture_energy": 46.568, "architecture_maturity": 17.906, "architecture_confidence": 77.503, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 23.66, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 66.52, "downward_expansion": 53.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.132, 2.295909, 2.66631, 2.647462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.18, "trend_reference": 2.561167, "distance_from_trend": -0.148825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.817338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.784278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050602, "excess_performance": -0.136851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22622, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.485291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237510010, "relative_activity": 0.753998, "balance": 0.962668, "dry_up": 0.756558, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245236, "annualized_volatility": 0.691045, "from_high_reference": -0.524017, "from_low_reference": 0.546099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.561167, "fair_value_reference": 2.817338, "structural_low": 1.715, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050344, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217877, "worst_return": -0.215512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.206704, "worst_return": -0.53012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.340444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.110897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012048, "worst_return": -0.438782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 2.64, "volume": 210761675, "typical_volume": 364504422.4, "trend": 2.5705, "fair_value": 3.114326, "relative_strength": -3.562696, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.583572, "energy": 24.475958, "activity_lines": [ 2.709667, 3.022364, 2.969333, 2.783151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.23, "volume": 248253175, "typical_volume": 361403780.85, "trend": 2.5675, "fair_value": 3.0508, "relative_strength": -20.045189, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.481732, "energy": 30.839191, "activity_lines": [ 2.519333, 2.850636, 2.919024, 2.761183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.17, "volume": 248563601, "typical_volume": 350544569.95, "trend": 2.5665, "fair_value": 2.985287, "relative_strength": -18.786889, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.189546, "energy": 34.045667, "activity_lines": [ 2.374667, 2.684, 2.861286, 2.735538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.09, "volume": 173692948, "typical_volume": 327708803.7, "trend": 2.567167, "fair_value": 2.922659, "relative_strength": -20.429891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.330821, "energy": 50.771669, "activity_lines": [ 2.242667, 2.520091, 2.794119, 2.704796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.06, "volume": 293498488, "typical_volume": 324565075.2, "trend": 2.5615, "fair_value": 2.861762, "relative_strength": -22.178945, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.679272, "energy": 54.842736, "activity_lines": [ 2.151333, 2.381455, 2.724286, 2.672075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.18, "volume": 237510010, "typical_volume": 315000761.3, "trend": 2.561167, "fair_value": 2.817338, "relative_strength": -21.784278, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.624218, "energy": 46.567657, "activity_lines": [ 2.132, 2.295909, 2.66631, 2.647462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }