{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3ec8e6a-89db-4d90-afeb-885d0792d473", "symbol": "MAZDOCK", "name": "Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.352, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.498, "architecture_energy": 24.532, "architecture_maturity": 6.606, "architecture_confidence": 68.829, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.05, "rotation_up": 23.79, "upward_expansion": 24.33, "deceleration": 47.57, "rotation_down": 47.5, "downward_expansion": 44.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2405.920003, 2422.967299, 2457.56717, 2449.430093 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2514.899902, "trend_reference": 2435.566659, "distance_from_trend": 0.032573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2118.991922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.39029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050089, "excess_performance": 0.093799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6688812, "relative_activity": 1.262043, "balance": 0.494755, "dry_up": 0.730364, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04859, "annualized_volatility": 0.330824, "from_high_reference": -0.174151, "from_low_reference": 0.222368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2435.566659, "fair_value_reference": 2118.991922, "structural_low": 2057.399902, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106437, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137622, "worst_return": 0.053921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.879798, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.774422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.412592, "worst_return": 0.019778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 2.094579, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 1.993544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.316584, "worst_return": -0.120509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2098.787831, "relative_strength": -6.386234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.20826, "energy": 44.399552, "activity_lines": [ 2377.346729, 2416.536417, 2458.796703, 2447.911001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2381.800049, "volume": 3975690, "typical_volume": 5390720.1, "trend": 2434.8278, "fair_value": 2108.303306, "relative_strength": -5.030845, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.250914, "energy": 44.49132, "activity_lines": [ 2366.426725, 2406.858234, 2451.971944, 2444.264151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2514.899902, "volume": 6688812, "typical_volume": 5299986.6, "trend": 2435.566659, "fair_value": 2118.991922, "relative_strength": -0.39029, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.498476, "energy": 24.532255, "activity_lines": [ 2405.920003, 2422.967299, 2457.56717, 2449.430093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }