{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3f25f3e-91c7-4b63-aad5-e51cae213c16", "symbol": "000985", "name": "Daqing Huake Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.188, "architecture_energy": 60.995, "architecture_maturity": 71.485, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 60.61, "rotation_down": 54.84, "downward_expansion": 84.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.451333, 14.62931, 15.881786, 16.932472 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.88, "trend_reference": 18.252149, "distance_from_trend": -0.184754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.939334, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.414496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328823, "excess_performance": -0.336222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8742050, "relative_activity": 1.306673, "balance": 0.309401, "dry_up": 1.31504, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078698, "annualized_volatility": 0.272546, "from_high_reference": -0.4048, "from_low_reference": 0.118797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.252149, "fair_value_reference": 16.939334, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024691, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.016546, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.209665, "worst_return": -0.124007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029746, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.028326, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.650298, "worst_return": -0.004429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108486, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.15391, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.629629, "worst_return": -0.163981, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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90.628466, "activity_lines": [ 15.196138, 16.225141, 17.536464, 18.333252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.46, "volume": 6358588, "typical_volume": 10216565.05, "trend": 18.889815, "fair_value": 16.985167, "relative_strength": -31.008893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.194527, "energy": 90.98301, "activity_lines": [ 14.819113, 15.724267, 17.145728, 18.035586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.4, "volume": 7771878, "typical_volume": 10045530.85, "trend": 18.758482, "fair_value": 16.974124, "relative_strength": -23.82368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.392953, "energy": 88.116779, "activity_lines": [ 14.591278, 15.31713, 16.78185, 17.745921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.85, "volume": 10592703, "typical_volume": 8139033.7, "trend": 18.576815, "fair_value": 16.958599, "relative_strength": -26.349375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.758877, "energy": 75.705658, "activity_lines": [ 14.307333, 14.909371, 16.398448, 17.429244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.39, "volume": 8085500, "typical_volume": 7224485.95, "trend": 18.393149, "fair_value": 16.946662, "relative_strength": -21.662336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.986576, "energy": 65.365094, "activity_lines": [ 14.290667, 14.689732, 16.102474, 17.159127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.88, "volume": 8742050, "typical_volume": 6690313.45, "trend": 18.252149, "fair_value": 16.939334, "relative_strength": -22.414496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.188206, "energy": 60.994538, "activity_lines": [ 14.451333, 14.62931, 15.881786, 16.932472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }