{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3fe57b9-87d4-4bd8-8bc7-a3749bcbcba4", "symbol": "STGO", "name": "Steppe Gold Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.38, "architecture_energy": 7.469, "architecture_maturity": 49.003, "architecture_confidence": 52.274, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.81, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 20.39, "deceleration": 68.13, "rotation_down": 34.78, "downward_expansion": 58.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.326667, 1.319273, 1.309952, 1.35572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.53, "trend_reference": 1.486333, "distance_from_trend": 0.029379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.045353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.085232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22335, "excess_performance": -0.343772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037652, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1279700, "relative_activity": 1.017512, "balance": 0.754953, "dry_up": 1.021647, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105078, "annualized_volatility": 0.754885, "from_high_reference": -0.37037, "from_low_reference": 0.378378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.486333, "fair_value_reference": 1.045353, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.032799, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.037219, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.403226, "worst_return": -0.192053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006089, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027149, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.309322, "worst_return": -0.292818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.153178, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.348066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.351648, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.303448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04712, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.858466, "energy": 20.764713, "activity_lines": [ 1.342667, 1.308909, 1.318667, 1.418022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.2, "volume": 991300, "typical_volume": 1526460.0, "trend": 1.549, "fair_value": 1.034712, "relative_strength": -33.480516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.774794, "energy": 30.79368, "activity_lines": [ 1.292, 1.290909, 1.304286, 1.393978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 1743700, "typical_volume": 1428735.0, "trend": 1.523667, "fair_value": 1.03766, "relative_strength": -31.217424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.656213, "energy": 33.686754, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.284545, 1.296667, 1.374043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.21, "volume": 1124900, "typical_volume": 1375670.0, "trend": 1.500333, "fair_value": 1.040417, "relative_strength": -32.38069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.741248, "energy": 40.932754, "activity_lines": [ 1.239333, 1.273273, 1.287667, 1.353806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.53, "volume": 1279700, "typical_volume": 1257675.0, "trend": 1.486333, "fair_value": 1.045353, "relative_strength": -17.085232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.37993, "energy": 7.468522, "activity_lines": [ 1.326667, 1.319273, 1.309952, 1.35572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }