{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d402d38d-8313-460e-864c-b75b5ed05281", "symbol": "RY", "name": "Royal Bank of Canada", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.055, "architecture_energy": 65.895, "architecture_maturity": 94.245, "architecture_confidence": 78.391, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 53.34, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 294.934829, 292.475494, 279.688849, 267.314025 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 294.589996, "trend_reference": 252.936918, "distance_from_trend": 0.164678, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.314159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.699746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.857119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.27452, "excess_performance": 0.154098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.699746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137915, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051246, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.27452, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.884732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12486600, "relative_activity": 0.850486, "balance": 6.884732, "dry_up": 1.182331, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028405, "annualized_volatility": 0.141774, "from_high_reference": -0.032711, "from_low_reference": 0.649049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 252.936918, "fair_value_reference": 173.314159, "structural_low": 215.534833, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016009, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.000805, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.124521, "worst_return": -0.075864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.049542, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021344, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.222741, "worst_return": -0.094209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.132188, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.063869, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.327437, "worst_return": -0.084581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.09176, "energy": 94.74581, "activity_lines": [ 294.156905, 286.200638, 269.634768, 258.610981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 293.25, "volume": 20077600, "typical_volume": 14586000.0, "trend": 248.790388, "fair_value": 171.03197, "relative_strength": 16.673735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.449776, "energy": 77.736142, "activity_lines": [ 294.815285, 288.885832, 273.284557, 261.614024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 293.410004, "volume": 20122000, "typical_volume": 15031810.0, "trend": 250.859601, "fair_value": 172.167306, "relative_strength": 16.611764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.882253, "energy": 67.521193, "activity_lines": [ 294.915666, 290.859209, 276.605383, 264.492709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 294.589996, "volume": 12486600, "typical_volume": 14681720.0, "trend": 252.936918, "fair_value": 173.314159, "relative_strength": 12.857119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.055441, "energy": 65.894683, "activity_lines": [ 294.934829, 292.475494, 279.688849, 267.314025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }