{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4057e55-a3df-4ac3-8351-2d2c91384d4c", "symbol": "WHCE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco S&P World Health Care ESG UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.175, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.768, "architecture_energy": 61.257, "architecture_maturity": 14.206, "architecture_confidence": 64.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.41, "rotation_up": 74.44, "upward_expansion": 63.73, "deceleration": 22.35, "rotation_down": 18.9, "downward_expansion": 19.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.705067, 6.635436, 6.476298, 6.432674 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.7735, "trend_reference": 6.435183, "distance_from_trend": 0.052573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.999398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.374144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01165, "excess_performance": -0.039586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003553, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061241, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39118, "relative_activity": 3.142513, "balance": 1.410149, "dry_up": 2.224173, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025944, "annualized_volatility": 0.1796, "from_high_reference": -0.014764, "from_low_reference": 0.219023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.435183, "fair_value_reference": 5.999398, "structural_low": 5.9555, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006988, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051925, "worst_return": -0.078242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10164, "worst_return": -0.090558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.020126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068765, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093057, "worst_return": -0.052805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.035338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035338, "worst_return": 0.035338, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032953, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013165, 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"activity_lines": [ 6.608667, 6.497555, 6.363664, 6.377699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.692, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 13238.4, "trend": 6.428483, "fair_value": 5.982135, "relative_strength": -1.028221, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.930442, "energy": 71.099351, "activity_lines": [ 6.6592, 6.550136, 6.400648, 6.394943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.672, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11761.35, "trend": 6.432183, "fair_value": 5.990795, "relative_strength": -2.518718, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.902605, "energy": 60.626921, "activity_lines": [ 6.668567, 6.587355, 6.434483, 6.410654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.7735, "volume": 39118, "typical_volume": 12448.0, "trend": 6.435183, "fair_value": 5.999398, "relative_strength": -1.374144, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.768364, "energy": 61.256948, "activity_lines": [ 6.705067, 6.635436, 6.476298, 6.432674 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }